TITLE:
An Analysis of the “Belt and Road” Concept Index’s Risk Alert Integrating Mixed-Frequency Macroeconomic Variables
AUTHORS:
Xuchang Chen, Guoqiang Tang, Yumei Ren, Xin Li
KEYWORDS:
Belt and Road, TVP-VAR, ICEEMDAN, AUTOFORMER
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Financial Risk Management,
Vol.12 No.4,
December
13,
2023
ABSTRACT: The low-frequency
macroeconomic variables are applied to the risk prediction of the “belt and
road” concept index. Firstly, the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model (TVP-VAR) is used to
calculate the Risk Spillover Effect of the “belt and road” concept index, and
the improved adaptive noise complete set empirical mode decomposition
(ICEEMDAN) is used to decompose the Risk Spillover index; Secondly, combined
with permutation entropy and extreme gradient lifting tree model with Shapley
value (XGBOOST), the characteristics
of monthly macroeconomic variables were screened and the dimension was reduced by factor analysis, and the
macroeconomic factors were extracted; Then the empirical mode component terms of macroeconomic factors and Risk Spillover index
decomposition are reconstructed by using the mixing sampling model
(CARCH-MIDAS); Finally, the reconstructed
data and technical data are combined to use the depth autocorrelation network model (AUTOFORMER) for prediction,
and the error is compared with other benchmark models. The empirical
results show that this model has a higher
accuracy in predicting the risk trend of the “belt and road” concept
index. Therefore, investors should pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic
variables when preventing the risk of the “belt and road” concept index.