TITLE:
Seasonal Adjustment of China’s Monthly Data to Take into Account the Effect of Mobile Holidays
AUTHORS:
Song Yanfei
KEYWORDS:
X-13-ARIMA-SEATS, Seasonal Adjustment, Mobile Holiday Effect
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.10 No.4,
August
26,
2020
ABSTRACT: Based on the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS model, aiming at the
problem of mobile holidays in China’s economic data, this paper introduces a
new method of seasonal adjustment based on the AICC criterion to objectively
select the parameters of dummy variables of mobile holidays. Taking the current
total value of China’s import and export as an example, we expound a new method for seasonal
adjustment of mobile holidays such as Spring Festival, Dragon Boat Festival and
Mid-Autumn Festival. Finally, the model is used to predict the total value of
China’s import and export in and out of the sample. The prediction results show
that the relative error of the out of sample data is less than 5%. The new
method has advantages in the processing of macroeconomic data.