ABSTRACT
In the
light of various epidemic problems, such as inequality, inequity, corruption,
and continual mass protests, is regime collapse in China probable? What are the
necessary and sufficient conditions for the occurrence of regime collapse and
continuity? To address these questions, I conducted field research in PRC in
2007-2016 to analyze the basic governance problems of the Communist Party of
China to generate a basis for predicting China’s political development. The key
findings are that China’s political development is indeed at the crossroads,
that regime succession advocates do have the leverage to transform PRC into a
capitalist-political system, but that sustainable regime continuity will be enhanced
if certain sufficient conditions are present. My principal conclusions are that
a dynamic gaming relation is in existence in such a way that both the CPC
leadership and regime succession advocates could maneuver at the presence of
certain necessary conditions as well as the creation of sufficient conditions
for regime continuity or succession. Moreover, once the issues of ideological
misfit and governance legitimacy are resolved by theoretical breakthrough,
which is already in progress, CPC’s sustainable regime continuity will be
enhanced. Furthermore, the CPC leadership may well be remembered historically
for its contribution to pushing China into a prosperity age, characterized not
only by political stability, economic prosperity, and societal harmony, but
also the vanishing of exploitation, oppression, and avoidable pain and agony,
as well as the flourishing of human growth and development, productivity, and
sustainable happiness.