TITLE:
Quantifying Seawater Intrusion in a Stressed Coastal Aquifer Using Hydrochemical and Statistical Analysis: Evidence from the Tudor Aquifer, Kenya
AUTHORS:
Charles Ngala Kithome, Mary Makokha, Shadrack Murimi
KEYWORDS:
Seawater Intrusion, Groundwater Abstraction, Sea Level Rise, Tudor Aquifer, Chloride, Regression Analysis
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.14 No.5,
May
19,
2026
ABSTRACT: Seawater intrusion is a major threat to coastal aquifers, particularly in rapidly urbanizing regions where groundwater abstraction and sea level rise interact. This study evaluates the combined influence of sea level rise and groundwater abstraction on seawater intrusion dynamics in the Tudor aquifer, Mombasa County, Kenya. Hydrochemical data, abstraction records, and spatial proximity to the coastline were analyzed using regression and correlation models to quantify relationships between chloride concentration, abstraction rates, and distance from the shoreline. Results indicate a strong positive correlation between groundwater abstraction and chloride concentration (r > 0.85), and a strong inverse relationship between distance from the coast and salinity levels (r