TITLE:
Assessment of Regional Climate Models over Côte D'Ivoire and Analysis of Future Projections over West Africa
AUTHORS:
Kouakou Kouadio, Abdourahamane Konare, Adama Diawara, Bernard Kouakou Dje, Vincent Olanrewaju Ajayi, Arona Diedhiou
KEYWORDS:
AMMA, Ensembles, West Africa Monsoon, Regional Climate Models, Precipitation
JOURNAL NAME:
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences,
Vol.5 No.2,
March
31,
2015
ABSTRACT: The ability of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) used in AMMA-ENSEMBLES
project is assessed over six meteorological stations in Côte d’Ivoire. The
ensemble mean of the models is also used for the prediction of climate change
over West Africa. The study focused on two periods: the period 1995-2005, the present-day
simulations, is used to evaluate the skills of the models over the country and
the years 2010-2013, for assessment of the future climate change scenario used.
The results show that the skills of the models vary from one station to another
and from one season to another. None of the models considered, presents an
excellent performance over the entire country and in all the seasons. Generally, the ensemble mean of all the models presents better results
when compared with the observation. These results suggest that the choice of
any model for study over the country may depend on the focus of interest:
intensity or variability of the rain and also on area of interest. The
projection for 2020-2040, future climate change over West Africa shows that the
Sahel exhibits a tendency to be drier while wetter Guinean coast is observed.