TITLE:
Forecast for the Cameroon’s Residential Electricity Demand Based on the Multilinear Regression Model
AUTHORS:
Serge Guefano, Jean Gaston Tamba, Louis Monkam, Beguide Bonoma
KEYWORDS:
Modeling of the Electricity Demand, Forecast, Residential Sector, VAR Model, Cameroon
JOURNAL NAME:
Energy and Power Engineering,
Vol.12 No.5,
May
21,
2020
ABSTRACT: The
electricity needs of populations in Cameroon are increasing and are still very
inadequate. Companies, public buildings and households are facing frequent
blackout which constrain development and social well-being. Therefore, the
present work tried to forecast the electricity demand in the residential sector
in Cameroon, in order to contribute significantly to
the mastery of electricity consumption and highlight decision-makers in this
sector. Six macroeconomics parameters covering the period 1994-2014 are used
for these issues. Stationarity tests within gross domestic product, gross
domestic product per capita, electricity consumption, population and numbers of
subscribers and households respectively; reveal that all the series are I(1). Thus, the VAR (Vector
Autoregressive) model has been retained to forecast the electricity demand
until 2020. The cusum test and the cusum of squared test attest the stability
of that model with a margin of error of 0.02%. Previsions are then more
reliable and show that the electric request will skip from 1721 GWh in 2014 to
more than 2481 GWh in 2020 approximatively, following a growing yearly rate of 5.36%. In order to reach its emergence, Cameroon
ought to speed up its production in the domain of hydroelectric and
thermal grid in order to meet the requirements in electric power in short and
long term.