TITLE:
Research on Thunderstorm Forecasting in Fuxin, China Based on Physical Diagnostic Parameters
AUTHORS:
Xu Zhang, Baoli Sun, Ke Sun, Ji Liu, Xiaotong Yang, Jianing Bai, Hongjie Shi, Yuan Xie
KEYWORDS:
Thunderstorm, Forecast and Warning, Physical Parameters, Fuxin City
JOURNAL NAME:
Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection,
Vol.7 No.6,
June
27,
2019
ABSTRACT:
Thunderstorms are very spectacular super-long-range
discharge processes in the atmosphere, which can cause tremendous damage in an
instant, often leading to casualties, resulting in damage to buildings, power
supply systems, communication equipment and forest fires, causing major
economic losses. In order to successfully predict thunderstorms, and many
economic losses can be avoided. Using the observation data of two county
stations in Yimeng County and Zhangwu County from June to August 2009-2015, 40
typical thunderstorm weather processes were selected, and 15 convective
parameters related to thunderstorm activities were calculated. After
statistical analysis, there are seven convective parameters with significant
correlation with thunderstorm activity: convective affective potential energy
(CAPE), 850 hPa specific humidity, 700 hPa specific humidity,
850 hPa false equivalent temperature,
maximum rising speed, strong weather threat index (SWEAT) and zero
degree height (ZH), and the correlation is greater than 0.3. We determined the
forecast threshold of the above forecasting factors, calculated the fitting
rate and conducted a test report. We used the pup product to establish a
short-term proximity indicator for thunderstorm warning. Three products with
combined reflectivity, vertical integrated liquid water content and echo top
height were selected as warning indicators for thunderstorms. The above
research results were used to forecast the thunderstorm weather from June to
August in the year of 2015 and 2016. The forecast accuracy rate is more than
85%. In summary, the above methods have reference value and indicative
significance for the forecast and warning of thunderstorm weather in Fuxin
City, China.