TITLE:
Local Government Debt Limit: Forecast and Management
AUTHORS:
Keliang Chen
KEYWORDS:
Zsg-Dea, Debt Limit, Local Government Debt
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.10 No.3,
March
25,
2019
ABSTRACT: This paper uses the method of Zsg-dea to measure the
debt limit of 31 regions of China in 2017 years. Through 3 iterations and
adjustments, it is concluded that 31 regions have reached the optimal debt
limit adjustment of DEA effective, and found that there is obvious regional
nature of the limit adjustment in various provinces. The regional increase in
northeast and northwest China is relatively small, under 30 billion, and then
Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang and other coastal cities with better
economic development, the debt adjustment is relatively large, in more than 80
billion. At the same time, Guizhou, Liaoning due to the low borrowing
efficiency, the reduction is relatively large, there is a debt risk. This paper
further puts forward some suggestions on the reform of China’s debt limit
management system, which provides some reference value for the future reform of
the financial system.