Feng, Y., Liu, Y. and Batty, M. (2016) Modeling Urban Growth with GIS Based Cellular Automata and Least Squares SVM Rules: A Case Study in Qingpu-Songjiang Area of Shanghai, China. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 30, 1387-1400.
ABSTRACT: Urban Growth Models (UGMs) are very essential for a sustainable development of a city as they predict the future urbanization based on the present scenario. Neural Network based Cellular Automata models have proved to predict the urban growth more close to reality. Recently, deep learning based techniques are being used for the prediction of urban growth. In this current study, urban growth of Chennai Metropolitan Area (CMA) of 2017 was predicted using Neural Network based Cellular Automata (NN-CA) model and Deep belief based Cellular Automata (DB-CA) model using 2010 and 2013 urban maps. Since the study area experienced congested type of urban growth, “Existing Built-Up” of 2013 alone was used as the agent of urbanization to predict urban growth in 2017. Upon validating, DB-CA model proved to be the better model, as it predicted 524.14 km2 of the study area as urban with higher accuracy (kappa co-efficient: 0.73) when compared to NN-CA model which predicted only 502.42 km2 as urban (kappa co-efficient: 0.71), while the observed urban cover of CMA in 2017 was 572.11 km2. This study also aimed at analyzing the effects of different types of neighbourhood configurations (Rectangular: 3 × 3, 5 × 5, 7 × 7 and Circular: 3 × 3) on the prediction output based on DB-CA model. To understand the direction and type of the urban growth, the study area was divided into five distance based zones with the State Secretariat as the center and entropy values were calculated for the zones. Results reveal that Chennai Corporation and its periphery experience congested urbanization whereas areas away from the Corporation boundary follow dispersed type of urban growth in 2017.