TITLE:
A Model for the Risk of Microcephaly Induced by the Zika Virus (ZIKV)
AUTHORS:
Dalia M. Muñoz Pizza, Anibal Muñoz Loaiza, John F. Arredondo Montoya, Oscar A. Manrique, Vanessa Abello Sossa, Carlos A. Abello Muñoz, Steven Raigosa, Hans Meyer Contreras, Irma Pérez Contreras, Maria E. Cardenas Perea, Miguel A. Enríquez
KEYWORDS:
Model, Microcephaly, Zika Virus, Basic Reproduction Number, Sensitivity Analysis
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation,
Vol.4 No.3,
July
14,
2016
ABSTRACT: It has been introduced and analyzed a mathematical model based on integral equations, which turns into a dynamical system of non-linear differential equations to account for the risk of microcephaly incidence caused by the Zika virus. A specific pregnant women susceptible group has been accounted for. The epidemic threshold (basic reproduction number) has been obtained by implementing the next generation matrix method. A sensitivity analysis with respect to each parameter has been applied to that threshold. Finally, the incidence to the exposure is obtained by performing several system simulations.