TITLE:
Short-Term Earthquake Forecast with the Seismic Sequence Hierarchization Method
AUTHORS:
Giulio Riga, Paolo Balocchi
KEYWORDS:
Branching Structure, Earthquake, Microsequence, Hierarchization, Foreshock
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Earthquake Research,
Vol.5 No.2,
May
11,
2016
ABSTRACT: All strong earthquakes are preceded by branching structures having different durations whose
development scheme is partly largely predictable because it follows a well organized and recognizable
pattern. By using a seismic sequence hierarchization method, this study graphically explains
the preparation process of an earthquake, called “branching structure”. In addition, criteria
apt to distinguish the structures that will produce shocks of average magnitude from strong
earthquakes’ will be defined. Based on the temporal oscillations of the magnitude values, we explain
the procedure for identifying the developmental stages that characterize the energy accumulation
stage of the branching structure, in order to early detect the energy release stage’s trigger
point and obtain information on how it will develop over time. The study identifies also some
pre-signals (trigger points) of various magnitudes in the energy release stage, which allows us to
early predict the foreshocks and mainshock time position. The method we developed constitutes a
truly innovative approach for the earthquake forecasting analysis, which dramatically differs from
those developed so far, as it considers the structure of the seismic sequence not only as a magnitude
values’ oscillation, but also as a sequence of developmental stages that may begin much earlier.