TITLE:
Using Box-Jenkins Models to Forecast Mobile Cellular Subscription
AUTHORS:
Ian Siluyele, Stanley Jere
KEYWORDS:
Mobile Cellular Subscription, Box-Jenkins Methodology, ARIMA Model, Autocorrelation Function, Partial Autocorrelation Function
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Statistics,
Vol.6 No.2,
April
26,
2016
ABSTRACT: In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to
determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular
subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data
submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority
(ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel
Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile
cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and
has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an
adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and
is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a
gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating
to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.