TITLE:
Forecast of Economic Growth by Time Series and Scenario Planning Method—A Case Study of Shenzhen
AUTHORS:
Tao Wang
KEYWORDS:
13th Five-Year Plan, Trend Forecasting, Economic Growth, ARIMA Model, Scenario Planning Method
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.7 No.2,
February
24,
2016
ABSTRACT: “Time series analysis” is one of the main tools to predict the value of
economic variable with the appropriate model to describe the time variation of
historical data. “Scenario planning” is a kind of special research method which
is used to analyze the macro environment of a subject. In the prediction of the
growth trend of economic entities, the two methods can be used to a certain extent
to avoid the prediction errors caused by environmental changes. The results
showed that the economic growth of Shenzhen during “the 13th Five-Year Plan” would
appear a slowing trend.