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Landsea, C.W. and Knaff, J.A. (2000) How Much Skill Was There in Forecasting the Very Strong 1997-98 El Nino? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81, 2107-2119.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<2107:HMSWTI>2.3.CO;2

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