TITLE:
Trends of Shoreline Position: An Approach to Future Prediction for Balasore Shoreline, Odisha, India
AUTHORS:
Nilay Kanti Barman, Soumendu Chatterjee, Ansar Khan
KEYWORDS:
Linear Regression Model, End Point Rate, Root Mean Square Error, Shoreline Change, Shoreline Prediction
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Marine Science,
Vol.5 No.1,
December
22,
2014
ABSTRACT: The present study aims to analyze the
shift in shoreline due to coastal processes and formulate available for best
estimate of future shoreline positions based on precedent shorelines. Information
on rates and trends of shoreline change can be used to improve the
understanding of the underlying causes and potential effects of coastal erosion
which can support informed coastal management decisions. In this paper,
researchers go over the changes in the recent positions of the shoreline of the
Balasore coast for the 38 years from 1975 through 2013. The study area includes
the Balasore coastal region from Rasalpur to Udaypur together with Chandipur,
Choumukh, Chandrabali as well as Bichitrapur. Transects wise shoreline data
base were developed for approximately 67 kilometers of shoreline and
erosional/accretional scenario has also been analysed by delineating the
shoreline from Landsat imageries of 1975, 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010
and 2013. A simple Linear Regression Model and End Point Rate (EPR) have been
adopted to take out the rate of change of shoreline and its future positions,
based on empirical observations at 67 transects along the Balasore coast. It is
found that the north eastern part of Balasore coast in the vicinity of
Subarnarekha estuary and Chandrabali beach undergo high rates of shore line
shift. The shoreline data were integrated for long- (about 17 years) and
short-term (about 7 years) shift rates analysis to comprehend the shoreline
change and prediction. For the prediction of future shoreline, the model has
been validated with the present shoreline position (2013). The rate of
shoreline movement calculated from the fixed base line to shoreline position of
1975, 1980, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 and based on this, the estimated shoreline
of 2013 was calculated. The estimated shoreline was compared with the actual
shoreline delineated from satellite imagery of 2013. The model error or
positional shift at each sample point is observed. The positional error varies
from?4.82 m to 212.41 m. It has been found that model prediction error is
higher in the left hand side of river Subarnarekha. The overall error for the
entire predicted shoreline was found to be 41.88 m by Root Mean Square Error
(RMSE). In addition, it was tested by means difference between actual and
predicted shoreline positions using “t” test and it has been
found that predicted shore line is not significantly different from actual
shoreline position at (t132 = 0.278) p