TITLE:
Climate Change Index: A Proposed Methodology for Assessing Susceptibility to Future Climatic Extremes
AUTHORS:
Manyu Chang, Claudine Dereczynski, Marcos A. V. Freitas, Sin Chan Chou
KEYWORDS:
Climate Extremes, Index, Climate Change
JOURNAL NAME:
American Journal of Climate Change,
Vol.3 No.3,
September
25,
2014
ABSTRACT: A Climate
Change Index (CCI) was designed to assess the degree of susceptibility to the climatic
extremes projected for the future. Climate projections for the period 2041-2070
are extracted from the numerical integrations of INPE’s Eta-HadCM3 model, using
the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Five indicators were chosen to represent the climatic
extremes: Total annual precipitation, precipitation on the days of heavy rain, the
maximum number of consecutive dry days in the year and the annual mean maximum and
mean minimum temperatures. The methodology was applied to the state of Paraná. The
results point to a very strong warming in 99% of the municipalities, with temperature
increases between 6 and 8 times greater than the variance observed in the present
climate. On the other hand, projections of precipitation do not indicate major changes
in relation to present behavior.