TITLE:
Modelling the Financial Framework of the Pharmacotherapy Cost of Rare Diseases with Orphan Medicines—Part II
AUTHORS:
Albena Zlatareva, Konstantin Tachkov, Milena Stoicheva, Svetla Georgieva, Maria Krasteva Bozhkova, Guenka Petrova
KEYWORDS:
Health Care Expenditures, Cost of Pharmacotherapy, Rare Diseases Financing
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.5 No.5,
May
20,
2014
ABSTRACT:
The
objective of this analysis is to build a regression cost model towards the data
for budget expenditures for rare diseases in Bulgaria and to evaluate the
future impact on the health care budget. Four regression cost models were built
based on previously published results of the macro costing top down financial
analysis of the expenditures for medicines spent by the 3rd party payer. In
Bulgaria that is the national health insurance fund (NHIF). The previous
analysis covers the period 2010-2013 year and the regression models are
forecasting the future expenditures till 2016 year. Four models follow linear
regression among the researched variables and expected future changes. The cost
of all reimbursed medicines, dietary food and medical devices is expected to
reach 703 million of BGN, medicines expenditures are expected to reach 680
million, number of reimbursed medicines is expected to be 2315, and
expenditures for rare diseases will reach 96 million of BGN. The number of
patients, as well as the budget allocated for orphan drugs is increasing in
time, with the addition of the critical fact that the oncology drugs were
transferred to the NHIF. This is a positive result based on a number of
factors, but also reveals the importance of carefully predicting and allocating
the funds needed for orphan drugs. The model analyzing costs for
pharmacotherapy shows that these expenses will increase linearly in the next
three years, which in turn will put the financial capabilities of the NHIF to
the test, as well as limit the access of patients to orphan drugs.