TITLE:
Revisiting the J-Curve for Japan
AUTHORS:
Masanori Ono, SaangJoon Baak
KEYWORDS:
J-Curve; S-Curve; Structural Change
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.5 No.1,
January
17,
2014
ABSTRACT:
This paper investigates Japanese trade to see whether
the J/S-curve phenomenon between net exports and the terms of trade is observed
in the data from 1980Q1 to 2008Q3. Based on the results of a VAR stability
test, the aggregate trade data are endogenously split into three sub-period
data sets, with the J/S-curve present in the last two. The J/S-curve may stem
from the increasing share of China and the oil-exporting countries in Japanese
trade. In fact, the J/S-curve is observed in the bilateral trade data with those
countries but not in the data with Korea or the United States.