Analysis of Climate Variability, Perceptions and Coping Strategies of Tanzanian Coastal Forest Dependent Communities

J. J. Kashaigili, P. Levira, E. Liwenga, M. V. Mdemu

Faculty of Forestry and Nature Conservation, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro, Tanzania.
Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA), University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
School of Urban and Regional Planning, Ardhi University, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
Tanzania Meteorological Agency, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2014.32020                

Abstract

Climate variability and change are among the biggest challenges of the 21^st century. Like in many other areas globally, the coastal communities of Tanzania have always been facing climatic variability at various time scales. Using focus group discussion and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate variability and change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by the selected coastal rural and peri-urban communities in Tanzania. The perception of climate variability and change is complemented with the time-series analysis of rainfall and temperature data from Julius Nyerere International Airport Met. station and Kisarawe using Instant Statistical Software. Results indicate that households are aware of climate variability and identify indicators of climate change and variability as being decreasing rainfall trends, increasing incidences of droughts, unpredictable rainfall patterns, disappearance of wetlands and failure to predict on-set of rainy season using traditional knowledge. Households primarily attribute reduced crop yields to changes in rainfall pattern and increasing incidences of drought leading to soil moisture stress. The implications are that the agriculture dependent households are now food insecure. As a way of coping to the observed changes, the coastal communities among others have shifted to production of high value horticultural crops and use of forest resources. Nevertheless, the increased use of forest resources is threatening the existence of coastal forests and contributes to the decline of forest resources and disappearance of wildlife in the forest reserves. It is concluded that the communities studied are aware of climate issues as revealed from perceived indicators of climate variability and changes. The results from statistical analysis of 30 years climatic data are consistent with community’s perception of climate variability and change. The study recommends examining the present coping strategies for the sustainability of the coastal forests and in designing of alternative adaptive strategies such as alternative energy options, crop diversification and environmental friendly activities such as beekeeping.

Keywords

Adaptation, Climate Variability and Change, Coping Strategies, Coastal Communities, Perception, Tanzania

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Clark, W., Mitchell, R., Cash, D. and Alcock, F. (2002) Information as Influence: How Institutions Mediate the Impacts of Scientific Assessments on Global Environmental Affairs. John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Faculty Research Working Papers Series.
[2]	Obasi, G.P. (1997) Climate Change and Freshwater Management. World Meteorological Organization. 1st World Water Forum, Marrakech.
[3]	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007) Climate Change 2007—Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
[4]	Huq, S., Rahman, A., Konate, M., Sokona, Y. and Reid, H. (2003) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Least Developed Countries (LDCs). www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/ldc/LDCsreport.pdf
[5]	Apata, T.G., Samuel, K.D. and Adeola, A.O. (2009) Analysis of Climate Change Perception and Adaptation among Arable Food Crop Farmers in South Western Nigeria. Contribution Paper Prepared for Presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists 2009 Conference, Beijing, 16-22 August 2009.
[6]	Adger, W.N., Arnell, N.W. and Tompkins, E.L. (2005) Successful Adaptation to Climate Change across Scales. Global Environmental Change Part A, 15, 77-86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005
[7]	Maddison, D. (2006) The Perception of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Africa. CEEPA Discussion Paper No. 10. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, University of Pretoria, Pretoria.
[8]	Kashaigili, J.J., Mdemu, M.V., Nduganda, A.R. and Mbilinyi, B.P. (2013) Integrated Assessment of Forest Cover Change and Above-Ground Carbon Stock in Pugu and Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserves, Tanzania. Advances in Remote Sensing, 2, 1-9. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ars.2013.21001
[9]	Mdemu, M., Kashaigili, J.J., Lupala, J., Levira, P., Liwenga, E., Nduganda, A. and Mwakapuja, F. (2012) Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Pugu and Kazimzumbwi Forest Reserves. Proceeding of the 1st Climate Change Impacts, Mitigation and Adaptation Programme Scientific Conference, Dar es Salaam, 2-3 January 2012, 54-77.
[10]	Kashaigili, J.J., Rajabu, K. and Masolwa, P. (2009) Freshwater Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Experiences from the Great Ruaha River Catchment in Tanzania. Climate and Development, 1, 220-228. http://dx.doi.org/10.3763/cdev.2009.0025