Optimal Vaccination Strategies in an SIR Epidemic Model with Time Scales

Onyango Nelson Owuor, Müller Johannes, Moindi Stephen Kibet

School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
TU Munich, Centre of Mathematical Science, Munich, Germany.

DOI: 10.4236/am.2013.410A2001                

Abstract

Childhood related diseases such as measles are characterised by short periodic outbreaks lasting about 2 weeks. This means therefore that the timescale at which such diseases operate is much shorter than the time scale of the human population dynamics. We analyse a compartmental model of the SIR type with periodic coefficients and different time scales for 1) disease dynamics and 2) human population dynamics. Interest is to determine the optimal vaccination strategy for such diseases. In a model with time scales, Singular Perturbation theory is used to determine stability condition for the disease free state. The stability condition is here referred to as instantaneous stability condition, and implies vaccination is done only when an instantaneous threshold condition is met. We make a comparison of disease control using the instantaneous condition to two other scenarios: one where vaccination is done constantly over time (constant vaccination strategy) and another where vaccination is done when a periodic threshold condition is satisfied (orbital stability from Floquet theory). Results show that when time scales of the disease and human population match, we see a difference in the performance of the vaccination strategies and above all, both the two threshold strategies outperform a constant vaccination strategy.

Keywords

Singular Perturbation Theory; Optimization; Vaccination Strategies

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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