Case Study: ENSO Events, Rainfall Variability and the Potential of SOI for the Seasonal Precipitation Predictions in Iran


The studies in recent decades show that many natural disasters such as tropical severe storms, hurricanes development, torrential rain, river flooding, and landslides in some regions of the world and severe droughts and wildfires in other areas are due to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research aims to contribute to an improved definition of the relation between ENSO and seasonal (autumn and winter) variability of rainfall over Iran. The results show that during autumn, the positive phase of SOI is associated with decrease in the rainfall amount in most part of the country; negative phase of SOI is associated with a significant increase in the rainfall amount. It is also found that, during the winter time when positive phase of SOI is dominant, winter precipitation increases in most areas of the eastern part of the country while at the same time the decreases in the amount of rainfall in other parts is not significant. Moreover, with negative phase of SOI in winter season the amount of rainfall in most areas except south shores of Caspian Sea in the north decreases, so that the decrease of rainfall amount in the eastern part is statistically significant.

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Abolhasan, G. and Maryam, N. (2013) Case Study: ENSO Events, Rainfall Variability and the Potential of SOI for the Seasonal Precipitation Predictions in Iran. American Journal of Climate Change, 2, 34-45. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2013.21004.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


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