Prediction of the Surplus Rate of Rural Labor Force in China from 2012 to 2050


At present, total rural labor force is about 450 million in China, accounting for about 74% of the total social labor force. According to incomplete statistics, the current working time of each rural labor force less than 100 days each year, of which about 40% is in the hidden unemployment. A large number of rural surplus labors seriously affected the growth of agricultural productivity and farmers’ income, impeded the coordinated development of economy and society in urban and rural areas. Therefore, under the new situation how to effectively estimate hundreds of millions of rural surplus labor is of great practical significance. In the paper, we assume that if the marginal revenue is different in various industries or trades, farmers seeking profit maximization will reach the better situation. We can estimate and predict the surplus rate of rural labor force, regarding the average wage of urban employment workers and agriculture (forestry, animal husbandry, fisheries) workers as the marginal revenue of urban labor force and rural labor force, based on fitting curve of exponential function by SPSS statistical software.

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Wang, W. , Wang, J. and Wang, Z. (2012) Prediction of the Surplus Rate of Rural Labor Force in China from 2012 to 2050. Modern Economy, 3, 557-562. doi: 10.4236/me.2012.35073.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


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