Share This Article:

Notes on Economic Growth with Scale Effects: Is Depopulation Compatible with Growth?

Abstract Full-Text HTML XML Download Download as PDF (Size:399KB) PP. 169-178
DOI: 10.4236/tel.2015.52021    3,534 Downloads   4,002 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

This research develops a simple theory to analyze the compatibility of depopulation and sustainable growth. By introducing the scale effect of aggregate rather than average human capital, it shows that the economy may enter a sustainable growth path with fertility recovery, keeping away from a non-Malthusian poverty trap.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

Nakagawa, M. , Oura, A. and Sugimoto, Y. (2015) Notes on Economic Growth with Scale Effects: Is Depopulation Compatible with Growth?. Theoretical Economics Letters, 5, 169-178. doi: 10.4236/tel.2015.52021.

References

[1] Kremer, M. (1993) Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 681-716. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2118405
[2] Romer, P.M. (1990) Endogenous Technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 98, S71-S102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261725
[3] Aghion, P. and Howitt, P. (1992) A Model of Growth through Creative Destruction. Econometrica, 60, 323-351. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2951599
[4] Jones, C.I. (1999) Growth: With or Without Scale Effects? American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 89, 139-144. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.2.139
[5] Prettner, K. (2013) Population Aging and Endogenous Economic Growth. Journal of Population Economics, 26, 811-834. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00148-012-0441-9
[6] Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations (2013) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Volume I: Comprehensive Tables ST/ESA/SER.A/336. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2012_Volume-I_Comprehensive-Tables.pdf
[7] Dalgaard, C.J. and Kreiner, C.T. (2001) Is Declining Productivity Inevitable? Journal of Economic Growth, 6, 187-203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1011343715594
[8] Strulik, H. (2005) The Role of Human Capital and Population Growth in R & D-Based Models of Economic Growth. Review of International Economics, 13, 129-145. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9396.2005.00495.x
[9] Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations (2014) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, Methodology of the United Nations Population Estimates and Projections. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.235. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Documentation/pdf/WPP2012_Methodology.pdf
[10] Strulik, H., Prettner, K. and Prskawetz, A. (2013) The Past and Future of Knowledge-Based Growth. Journal of Economic Growth, 18, 411-437. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10887-013-9098-9
[11] Galor, O. and Weil, D.N. (2000) Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond. American Economic Review, 90, 806-828. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.806
[12] Jones, C.I. (1995) R & D-Based Models of Economic Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 103, 759-784. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/262002
[13] Romer, P.M. (1986) Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth. Journal of Political Economy, 94, 1002-1037. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261420
[14] Maddison, A. (2006) The World Economy, Volume 1: A Millennial Perspective. The OECD Development Centre, Paris (Originally Published in 2001). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264022621-en
[15] Haveman, R. and Wolfe, B. (1995) The Determinants of Children’s Attainments: Findings and Review of Methods. Journal of Economic Literature, 33, 1829-1878.
[16] de la Croix, D. and Doepke, M. (2003) Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters. American Economic Review, 93, 1091-1113. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/000282803769206214

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2019 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.