Share This Article:

Beyond the Modernization Theory: So-cio-Demographic Changes, Economic Structure and Forest Transition in a Multi-Dimensional Time-Series Analysis for Italy

Abstract Full-Text HTML XML Download Download as PDF (Size:2977KB) PP. 183-194
DOI: 10.4236/jss.2014.211024    3,204 Downloads   3,637 Views   Citations

ABSTRACT

In the light of the modernization theory, the present paper proposes an empirical assessment of the population-economy-environment nexus in Italy by investigating the historical trends (1862- 2009) in 58 variables describing five themes (environment, demography, education, trade, agriculture). Socioeconomic variables representing changes in population structure and demographic dynamics compared with indicators of forest expansion allowed verifying the temporal coherence between demographic and forest transitions at the country scale. The study develops an exploratory data analysis framework based on principal component analysis, hierarchical and non-hiera- rchical clustering and identifies four homogeneous time intervals (1862-1899, 1900-1930, 1931- 1970, 1971-2009) in socioeconomic and environmental attributes. Different trends (positive linear, negative linear and non-linear) in the studied variables were identified through hierarchical clustering.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Cite this paper

Ferrara, A. , Salvati, L. , Becagli, C. and Bertini, G. (2014) Beyond the Modernization Theory: So-cio-Demographic Changes, Economic Structure and Forest Transition in a Multi-Dimensional Time-Series Analysis for Italy. Open Journal of Social Sciences, 2, 183-194. doi: 10.4236/jss.2014.211024.

References

[1] Lerner, D. (1958) The Passing of Traditional Society: Modernizing the Middle East. The Free Press, Glencoe.
[2] Harrison, D. (1988) The Sociology of Modernization and Development. Unwin Hyman, London. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780203359587
[3] Levy Jr., M. (1966) Modernization and the Structures of Societies. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
[4] Khan, J.S. (2001) Modernity and Exclusion. Sage, London. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9781446279038
[5] Giddens, A. (1991) Modernity and Self-Identity; Self and Society in the Late Modern Age. Polity Press, Cambridge.
[6] Inglehart, R. and Welzel, C. (2005) Modernization, Cultural Change and Democracy: The Human Development Sequence. Cambridge University Press, New York.
[7] Parsons, T. (1951) The Social System. Free Press, New York.
[8] Harte, J. (2007) Human Population as a Dynamic Factor in Environmental Degradation. Population and Environment, 28, 223-236. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11111-007-0048-3
[9] Chesnais, J.-C. (1993) The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications: A Longitudinal Study of Sixty-Seven Countries Covering the Period 1720-1984. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 633 p.
[10] Dudley, K. (1996) The Demographic Transition. Population Studies, 50, 361-387. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000149536
[11] Myrskyla, M., Kohler, H.-P. and Billari, F. (2009) Advances in Development Reverse Fertility Declines. Nature, 460, 741-743. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature08230
[12] Baudelle, G. and Olivier, D. (2006) Changement Global, Mondialisation et Modèle De Transition Démographique: Réflexion sur une exception fran?aise parmi les pays développés. Historiens et Géographes, 98, 177-204. (In French)
[13] Mather, A.S. (1992) The Forest Transition. Area, 24, 367-379. http://www.jstor.org/stable/20003181
[14] Mather, A.S., Needle, C. and Coull, J. (1998) From Resource Crisis to Sustainability: The Forest Transition in Denmark. International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology, 5, 183-192.
[15] Rudel, T.K. (2009) Tree Farms: Driving Forces and Regional Patterns in the Global Expansion of Forest Plantations. Land Use Policy, 26, 545-550. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.08.003
[16] Redo, D.J., Graub, H.R., Aidea, T.M. and Clark, M.L. (2012) Asymmetric Forest Transition Driven by the Interaction of Socio-Economic Development and Environmental Heterogeneity in Central America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 109, 8839-8844. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1201664109
[17] Mather, A.S. (2004) Forest Transition Theory and the Reforesting of Scotland. Scottish Geographical Journal, 120, 83-98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00369220418737194
[18] Mather, A.S. (2007) Recent Asian Forest Transitions in Relation to Forest-Transition Theory. International Forestry Review, 9, 491-502. http://dx.doi.org/10.1505/ifor.9.1.491
[19] Gutiérrez Rodríguez, L. and Ruiz Pérez, M. (2013) Recent Changes in Chinese Forestry Seen through the Lens of Forest Transition Theory. International Forestry Review, 15, 456-470. http://dx.doi.org/10.1505/146554813809025711
[20] He, J., Lang, R. and Xu, J. (2014) Local Dynamics Driving Forest Transition: Insights from Upland Villages in Southwest China. Forests, 5, 214-233. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f5020214
[21] Yackulic, C.B., Fagan, M., Jain, M., Jina, A., Lim, Y., Marlier, M., Muscarella, R., Adame, P., DeFries, R. and Uriarte, M. (2011) Biophysical and Socio-Economic Factors Associated with Forest Transitions at Multiple Spatial and Temporal Scales. Ecology and Society, 16, 15.
[22] DeFries, R.S. and Pandey, D. (2010) Urbanization, the Energy Ladder and Forest Transitions in India’s Emerging Economy. Land Use Policy, 27, 130-138. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.07.003
[23] Meyfroidt, P. and Lambin, E.F. (2008) The Causes of the Reforestation in Vietnam. Land Use Policy, 25, 182-197. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2007.06.001
[24] Klooster, D. (2003) Forest Transitions in Mexico: Institutions and Forests in a Globalized Countryside. The Professional Geographer, 55, 227-237.
[25] Hecht, S.B., Kandel, S., Gomes, I., Cuellar, N. and Rosa, H. (2006) Globalization, Forest Resurgence, and Environmental Politics in El Salvador. World Development, 34, 308-323. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.09.005
[26] Bray, D.B. and Klepeis, P. (2005) Deforestation, Forest Transitions, and Institutions for Sustainability in Southeastern Mexico, 1900-2000. Environment and History, 11, 195-223. http://dx.doi.org/10.3197/096734005774434584
[27] Rudel, T.K., Bates, D. and Machinguiashi, R. (2002) A Tropical Forest Transition? Agricultural Change, Out-Migra- tion, and Secondary Forests in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 92, 87- 102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8306.00281
[28] de Jong, W. (2009) Forest Rehabilitation and Its Implication for Forest Transition Theory. Biotropica, 42, 3-9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1744-7429.2009.00568.x
[29] Barbier, E.B., Burgess, J.C. and Grainger, A. (2009) The Forest Transition: Towards a More Comprehensive Theoretical Framework. Land Use Policy, 27, 98-107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2009.02.001
[30] Pagnutti, C., Bauch, C.T. and Anand, M. (2013) Outlook on a Worldwide Forest Transition. PLoS ONE, 8, e75890. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0075890
[31] Rudel, T.K. (2009) Tree Farms: Driving Forces and Regional Patterns in the Global Expansion of Forest Plantations. Land Use Policy, 26, 545-550. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.08.003
[32] Meyfroidt, P. and Lambin, E.F. (2011) Global Forest Transition: Prospects for an End to Deforestation. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 36, 343-371. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-090710-143732
[33] Bajocco, S., De Angelis, A., Perini, L., Ferrara, A. and Salvati, L. (2012) The Impact of Land Use/Land Cover Changes on Land Degradation Dynamics: A Mediterranean Perspective. Environmental Management, 49, 980-989. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00267-012-9831-8
[34] Salvati, L., De Angelis, A., Bajocco, S., Ferrara, A. and Barone, P.M. (2013) Desertification Risk, Long-Term Land- Use Changes and Environmental Resilience: A Case Study in Basilicata, Italy. Scottish Geographical Journal, 129, 85-99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14702541.2013.781209
[35] Ferrara, A., Salvati, L., Sabbi, A. and Colantoni, A. (2014) Soil Resources, Land Cover Changes and Rural Areas: Towards a Spatial Mismatch? Science of the Total Environment, 478, 116-122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.01.040
[36] Istat (2006) Atlante statistico dei comuni. Istituto Nazionale di Statistica, Roma.

  
comments powered by Disqus

Copyright © 2019 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.