Fair Plan 5: A Critical Appraisal of Five Congressional Bills to Reduce US CO2 Emissions

Michael E. Schlesinger, Michael Ring, Daniela Lindner, Emily Cross, Victoria Prince

Climate Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, USA.

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2014.45076                

Abstract

The most recent US Congressional climate bill, H.R.5271 in 2014, proposes to reduce US emissions of carbon dioxide relative to their 2005 value by 80% in 2050. This bill does not provide a rationale for this rapid phase down of CO2 emissions. In 2012, we crafted a Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate such that: 1) The cumulative trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developing countries equal the cumulative trade-adjusted CO2 emissions by the developed countries; 2) The maximum global warming above preindustrial temperature does not exceed the 2°C (3.6°F) chosen by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change “to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”; and 3) The phase out of CO2 emissions begins as late as possible in the 21st century and proceeds at the slowest possible pace, consistent with objectives 1 and 2. The Fair Plan begins in 2020 and reduces the world’s emissions to zero in 2100. In the Fair Plan the emissions of the developed countries, including the United States, reach 80% below their 2005 values in 2094, that is, 44 years later than proposed by H.R.5271. While it is imperative that humanity begins to wean itself from fossil fuels no later than 2020, the transition from fossil to non-fossil energy need not be completed before 2100 if all countries follow their Fair Plan trajectories.

Keywords

Climate Change, Global Warming, Greenhouse-Gas Emissions, Mitigation

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Lieberman, J. (2003) Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, in S.139. US Senate, Washington DC.
[2]	McCain, J. (2005) Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2005 in S.1151. US Senate, Washington DC.
[3]	Lieberman, J. (2007) Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act of 2007, in S.280. US Senate, Washington DC.
[4]	Waxman, H. (2009) American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, in H.R.2454. US House of Representatives, Washington DC.
[5]	Van Hollen Jr., C. (2014) Healthy Climate and Family Security Act of 2014, in H.R.5271. US House of Representatives, Washington DC.
[6]	Boden, T., Marland, G. and Andres, B. (2013) National CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning, Cement Manufacture, and Gas Flaring: 1751-2010. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/ndp030/nation.1751_2010.ems
[7]	Schlesinger, M.E., Ring, M.J. and Cross, E.F. (2012) A Revised Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate. Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 1330-1335. http://www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=23864 http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.310151
[8]	Anonymous (2009) ECO2 80/50 The European Future Project against Climate Change. http://www.euco2.eu/resources/EUCO2-Summary-Newest.pdf
[9]	Anonymous (2009) Presidency Conclusions—Brussels, 29/30 October 2009. Council of the European Union, Brussels, 24 p.
[10]	IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In: Metz, O.R.D.B., Bosch, P.R., Dave, R. and Meyer, L.A., Eds., Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 24.
[11]	Fisher, B.S., Nakicenovic, N., Alfsen, K., Corfee Morlot, J., de la Chesnaye, F., Hourcade, J.-Ch., Jiang, K., Kainuma, M., La Rovere, E., Matysek, A., Rana, A., Riahi, K., Richels, R., Rose, S., van Vuuren, D. and Warren, R. (2007) Issues Related to Mitigation in the Long Term Context. In: Metz, B., Davidson, O.R., Bosch, P.R., Dave, R. and Meyer, L.A., Eds., Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
[12]	United Nations (1992) United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf
[13]	Schlesinger, M.E., Andronova, N.G., Entwistle, B., Ghanem, A., Ramankutty, N., Wang, W. and Yang, F. (1997) Modeling and Simulation of Climate and Climate Change. In: Castagnoli, G.C. and Provenzale, A., Eds., Past and Present Variability of the Solar-Terrestrial System: Measurement, Data Analysis and Theoretical Models, Proceedings of the International School of Physics “Enrico Fermi” CXXXIII, IOS Press, Amsterdam, 389-429.
[14]	Schlesinger, M.E., Ring, M.J. and Cross, E.F. (2012) A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate. Journal of Environmental Protection, 3, 1330-1335. www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=23864 http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2012.310151
[15]	Schlesinger, M.E., Lindner, D., Ring, M.J. and Cross, E.F. (2013) A Fair Plan to Safeguard Earth’s Climate: 3. Outlook for Global Temperature Change throughout the 21st Century. Journal of Environmental Protection, 4, 653-664. www.scirp.org/journal/Paperinformation.aspx?PaperID=33421 http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/jep.2013.46075
[16]	Schlesinger, M., Ring, J., Lindner, D., Cross, E. and Prince, V. (2014) Fair Plan 4: Safeguarding the Climate of “This Island Earth”. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 431-436. www.scirp.org/journal/PaperInformation.aspx?paperID=24290 http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/acs.2014.43041
[17]	CDIAC (2013) Preliminary CO2 Emissions 2012. http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2_emis/Preliminary_CO2_emissions_2012.xlsx
[18]	White House (2014) Fact Sheet: US-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change and Clean Energy Cooperation. Office of the Press Secretary, Washington DC. http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/fact-sheet-us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change-and-clean-energy-c