The Future Human Lifespan: A Study on Italian Population


In the latter part of the 20th century, continued improvements in living standards, health behaviors, and medical care reduced mortality and produced amazing advances in life expectancy. These trends, followed by all industrial nations, decidedly affect the financial position of an insurance company, interested in the construction of updated life tables. The approach to this problem is faced in this paper by using the Lee-Carter methodology. In particular, in the present work, we are interested in modeling and forecasting mortality and life expectancy on a period basis through the use of a stochastic forecasting method which uses time-series models to make long-term forecasts.

Share and Cite:

Russolillo, M. (2014) The Future Human Lifespan: A Study on Italian Population. Applied Mathematics, 5, 1641-1650. doi: 10.4236/am.2014.511158.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


[1] Brouhns, N., Denuit, M. and Vermunt, J.K. (2002) A Poisson Log-Bilinear Regression Approach to the Construction of Projected Life Tables. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 31, 373-393.
[2] Lee, R.D. and Carter, L.R. (1992) Modelling and Forecasting U.S. Mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659-671.
[3] Renshaw, A. and Haberman, S. (2003) Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting: A Parallel Generalised Linear Modelling Approach for England and Wales Mortality Projections. Applied Statistics, 52, 119-137.
[4] Wilmoth, J.R. (1993) Computational Methods for Fitting and Extrapolating the Lee-Carter Model of Mortality Change. Technical Report, University of California, Berkeley.
[5] Koissi, M.C., Shapiro, A. and H?gn?s, G. (2005) Fitting and Forecasting Mortality Rates for Nordic Countries Using the Lee-Carter Method. Department of Mathematics, Abo Academy University, Finland.
[6] Giordano, G., Russolillo, M. and Haberman, S. (2008) Comparing Mortality Trends via Lee Carter Method in the Framework of Multidimensional Data Analysis. Mathematical and Statistical Methods in Insurance and Finance. Springer Verlag, Berlin, 131-138.
[7] Eckart, C. and Young, G. (1936) The Approximation of One Matrix by Another of Lower Rank. Psychometrika, 1, 211-218.
[8] Haberman, S. and Russolillo, M. (2005) Lee-Carter Mortality Forecasting: Application to the Italian Population. Actuarial Research Paper No. 167, City University.
[9] Box, G.E.P. and Jenkins, G.M. (1976) Time Series Analysis for Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
[10] Hamilton, J.D. (1994) Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
[11] Bell, F.C. and Miller, M.L. (2005) Life Tables for the United States Social Security Area 1900-2100.
[12] Keyfitz, N. (1977) Introduction to the Mathematics of Population with Revisions. Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., Reading.
[13] (2009) Human Mortality Database. University of California, Berkeley (USA), and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). or

Copyright © 2023 by authors and Scientific Research Publishing Inc.

Creative Commons License

This work and the related PDF file are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.