Mean and Interannual Variability of Maize and Soybean in Brazil under Global Warming Conditions
Flávio Justino, Evandro Chaves Oliveira, Rafael de Ávila Rodrigues, Paulo Henrique Lopes Gonçalves, Paulo Jorge Oliveira Ponte Souza, Frode Stordal, José Marengo, Thieres G. da Silva, Rafael Coll Delgado, Douglas da Silva Lindemann, Luiz Claudio Costa
Departamento de Engenharia Agrícola, Universidade Federal de Vi?osa, Vi?osa, Brazil.
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway.
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil.
Universidade Federal Rural da Amaz?nia, Instituto Sócio-Ambiental e dos Recursos Hídricos, Belém, Brazil.
Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco, Unidade Acadêmica de Serra Talhada, Serra Talhada, Brazil.
Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Instituto de Florestas/Departamento de Ciências Ambientais, Seropédica, Brazil.
DOI: 10.4236/ajcc.2013.24024   PDF    HTML     6,159 Downloads   10,504 Views   Citations


Brazil is responsible for 27% of the world production of soybeans and 7% of maize. Mato Grosso and Para states in Brazil are among the largest producer. The viability to the cultivation of maize (Zea mays) and soybeans (Glycine max), for future climate scenarios (2070-2100, GHG) is evaluated based on crop modeling (DSSAT) forced by observational data and regional climate simulations (HadRM3). The results demonstrated that a substantial reduction in the yield in particular for maize may be expected for the end of the 21st century. Distinct results are found for soybeans. By applying the A2 climate changes scenario, soybean yield rises by up top 60% assuming optimum soil treatment and no water stress. However, by analyzing the inter-annual variability of crop yields for both maize and soybean, could be demonstrated larger year-to-year fluctuations under greenhouse warming conditions as compared to current conditions, leading to very low productivity by the end of the 21st century. Therefore, these Brazilian states do not appear to be economically suitable for a future cultivation of maize and soybeans. Improved adaptation measures and soil management may however partially alleviate the negative climate change effect.

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F. Justino, E. Oliveira, R. Rodrigues, P. Gonçalves, P. Souza, F. Stordal, J. Marengo, T. Silva, R. Delgado, D. Lindemann and L. Costa, "Mean and Interannual Variability of Maize and Soybean in Brazil under Global Warming Conditions," American Journal of Climate Change, Vol. 2 No. 4, 2013, pp. 237-253. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2013.24024.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.


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