What impact would an HIV/AIDS vaccine have on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Kenya?

Omu Anzala, Gaudensia Nzembi Mutua, Fredrick Jack Odia Oyugi, Bashir Farah Mohamed, Thomas Achia, John Stover

Futures Institute Glastonbury, USA.
Kenya AIDS Vaccine Initiative, Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.
School of Mathematics, University of Nairobi, Nairobi, Kenya.

DOI: 10.4236/oji.2012.24023                

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the potential impact of an HIV/AIDS Vaccine in Kenya. Design: The Kenyan HIV/AIDS epidemic was modeled using the most current data from national sources including epidemiology and behavioral surveillance. The model’s baseline projection was validated against adult HIV prevalence at antenatal clinics and general population surveys. The model was used to analyze the effects of scaling up current prevention programs and adding potential HIV vaccines with varying levels of effectiveness and coverage. Results: Even with full scale-up of currently available prevention, care and treatment programs, new infections will continue to burden Kenya. The introduction of a partially effective AIDS vaccine could significantly alter the trajectory of the epidemic. Conclusion: The game changing impact that an AIDS vaccine could have on the AIDS epidemic in Kenya under-scores the importance of sustaining political support and financial investment to accelerate HIV/AIDS vaccine research and development.

Keywords

HIV; Vaccine; Modelling

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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