Effects of Changed Climate Conditions on Tropospheric Ozone over Three Centuries

G. Brandt Hedegaard, Jesper Heile Christensen, Camilla Geels, Allan Gross, Kaj Mantzius Hansen, Wilhelm May, Azimeh Zare, Jørgen Brandt

Danish Climate Centre, Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark.

DOI: 10.4236/acs.2012.24050                

Abstract

The ozone chemistry in four decades (1890s, 1990s, 2090s and 2190s) representing the changes over three centuries has been simulated using the chemistry version of the atmospheric long-range transport model: the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) forced with meteorology projected by theECHAM5/MPI-OM coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model. The largest changes in meteorology, ozone and its precursors are found in the 21st century, however, also significant changes are found in the 22nd century. At surface level the ozone concentration is projected to increase due to climate change in the areas where substantial amounts of ozone precursors are emitted. Elsewhere a significant decrease is projected at the surface. In the free troposphere a general increase is found in the entire Northern Hemisphere except in the tropics, where the ozone concentration is decreasing. In the Arctic the ozone concentration will increase in the entire air column, which most likely is due to changes in atmospheric transport. Changes in temperature, humidity and the naturally emitted Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) are governing the changes in ozone both in the past, present and future century.

Keywords

Ozone; Climate Change; Air Quality; Modelling

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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