Comparison of two statistical models in predicting the outcome of female systemic lupus erythematosus patients in China

Jing Wang, Jie Yang, Hai-Feng Pan, Bao-Zhu Li, Yan Zhu, Xiao-Song Wang, Xiang-Pei Li, Jian-Hua Xu, Dong-Qing Ye

1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Anhui Provincial Laboratory of Population Health & Major Disease Screening and Diagnosis, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.
Department of Rheumatology, Anhui Provincial Hospital, Hefei, China.
Division of Rheumatology, The First Ancillary Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.

DOI: 10.4236/health.2012.49091                

Abstract

Objectives: Comparing two different statistical models to predict female SLE patients’ outcome and analyze some related factors. Methods: 1072 female SLE patients were from the Provincial Hospital of Anhui Province and The First Ancillary Hospital of Anhui Medical University from 1990 to 2000. Two types of statistical models including loglinear and Cox proportional hazard model were performed according to this data. Results: Marriage situation, family place, admission situation, whether coming from a different division, nosocomial infection, first occurrent or not and number of drug types had significant effects on LOS after fitting of a loglinear model. Related factors from Cox proportional hazard model were little more than those selected from loglinear model. Based on the former model, a female SLE patient could be predicted that how long she would stay in hospital. But from the latter model, we could predict the ratio of the probability of improvement between different groups of female SLE patients with different individual or clinical characteristics. Conclusions: Factors affecting the length of stay of female SLE patients could be selected from either loglinear model or Cox model. But these two models would be used to do different predictions.

Keywords

Statistical Methods; Public Health; Epidemiology; Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

References

[1]	Kimberly, R. P. (2001) Research advances in systemic lupus erythematosus. Journal of American Medical Association, 285, 650-651. doi:10.1001/jama.285.5.650
[2]	Van Vollenhoven, R. F. (2002) Dehydroepiandrosterone for the treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus. Expert Opinion Pharmacother, 3, 23-31. doi:10.1517/14656566.3.1.23
[3]	McMurray, R. W. (2001) Nonstandard and adjunctive medical therapies for systemic lupus erythematosus. Arthritis Care & Research, 45, 86-100. doi:10.1002/1529-0131(200102)45:1<86::AID-ANR89>3.0.CO;2-A
[4]	Anand, K. J. S., Hopkins, S. E., Wright, J. A., Ricketts, R. R. and Flanders, W. D. (2001) Statistical models to predict the need for postoperative intensive care and hospitalization in pediatric surgical patients. Intensive Care Medicine, 27, 873-883. doi:10.1007/s001340100929
[5]	Kwong, G. P. S. and Hutton, J. L. (2003) Choice of parametric models in survival analysis: applications to monotherapy for epilepsy and cerebral palsy. Royal Statistical Society (Applied Statistics), 52, 153-168.
[6]	Austin, P. C., Rothwell, D. M. and Tu, J. V. (2002) A comparison of statistical modeling strategies for analyzing length of stay after CABF surgery. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 3, 107-133. doi:10.1023/A:1024260023851
[7]	Yau, K. K. W., Lee, A. H. and Gracey, M. (2005) Multilevel modeling of hospitalizations for recurrent diarrhoeal disease in aboriginal and non-aboriginal infants and young children in Western Australia. Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology, 19, 165-172. doi:10.1111/j.1365-3016.2005.00638.x
[8]	Ward, M. M., Pajevic, S., Dreyfuss, J. and Malley, J. D. (2006) Short-term prediction of mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: Classification of outcomes using random forests. Arthritis Care & Research, 55, 74-80. doi:10.1002/art.21695
[9]	Bertoli, A. M., Alarcon, G. S., McGwin Jr., G., Fernandez, M., Bastian, H. M., Fessler, B. J., et al. (2006) Systemic lupus erythematosus in a multiethnic US cohort (LUMINA) XXVII: Factors predictive of a decline to low levels of disease activity. Lupus, 15, 13-18. doi:10.1191/0961203306lu2256oa
[10]	Alarcon, G. S., Calvo-Alen, J., McGwin, G., Uribe, A. G., Toloza, S. M., Roseman, J. M., et al. Systemic lupus erythematosus in a multiethnic cohort: LUMINA XXXV. Predictive factors of high disease activity over time. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases, 65, 1168-1174. doi:10.1136/ard.2005.046896
[11]	Krishnan, E. (2006) Hospitalization and mortality of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus. Journal of Rheumatology, 33, 1770-1774.
[12]	Jones, E. and Jones, J. V. (1994) Factors affecting length of hospitalization in a rheumatic disease unit. Journal of Rheumatology, 21, 728-732.
[13]	Peek, M. S., Leffler, A. J., Flint, S. D., Ryel, R. J. (2003) How much variance is explained by ecologists? Additional perspectives. Oecologia, 137, 161-170. doi:10.1007/s00442-003-1328-y
[14]	Tan, E. M., Cohen, A. S., Fries, J. F., Masi, A. T., McShane, D. J., Rothfield, N. F., et al. (1982) Special article: The 1982 revised criteria for the classification of systemic lupus erythematosus. Arthritis & Rheumatism, 25, 1271-1277. doi:10.1002/art.1780251101
[15]	Hochberg, M. C. (1997) Updating the American College of Rheumatology revised criteria for the classification of systemic lupus erythematosus (letter). Arthritis & Rheumatism, 40, 1725. doi:10.1002/art.1780400928
[16]	Chen, F. (2000) Multivariate Statistics Analysis Methods in Medicine. China Statistics Press, Beijing, 22-49.
[17]	Lee, E. T. and Wang, J. W. (2003) Statistical methods for survival data analysis. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 298. doi:10.1002/0471458546.ch12
[18]	Irala-Estévez, J., Martínez-Concha, D., Díaz-Molina, C., Masa-Calles, J., Castillo, A. S., Fernández-Crehuet, N. R. (2001) Comparison of different methodological approaches to identify risk factors of nosocomial infection in intensive care units. Intensive Care Medicine, 27, 1254-1262. doi:10.1007/s001340101007
[19]	Alarcón, G. S., Gerald McGwin, J. R., Roseman, J. M., Uribe, A., Fessler, B. J., Bastian, H. M., et al. (2004) Systemic lupus erythematosus in three ethnic groups. XIX. Natural history of the accrual of the American College of Rheumatology Criteria prior to the occurrence of criteria diagnosis. Arthritis & Rheumatism, 51, 609-615. doi:10.1002/art.20548
[20]	Clarke, A. E., Petri, M., Manzi, S., Isenberg, D. A., Gordon, C., Senecal, J. L., et al. (2004) The systemic lupus erythematosus tri-nation study: Absence of a link between health resource use and health outcome. Rheumatology, 43, 1016-1024. doi:10.1093/rheumatology/keh229
[21]	Karlson, E. W., Liang, M. H., Eaton, H., Huang, J., Fitzgerald, L., Rogers, M. P., et al. (2004) A randomized clinical trial of a psychoeducational intervention to improve outcomes in systemic lupus erythematosus. Arthritis & Rheumatism, 50, 1832-1841. doi:10.1002/art.20279