The Role of Think Tanks in Megatrends Analysis and Future Research ()
1. Introduction
Academic literature that reflects on the role and challenges of think tanks in relation to megatrends and future research is very limited. Thus, the contribution of this paper is of an explorative nature and a novel subject of research. One of the few books on think tanks with relevant reference to the work of think tanks on global challenges is an edited volume by McGann (2021) who has been in charge of the flagship reports of the Global Go to Think Tank Index (GGTTI) of the Think Tank and Civil Society Programme (TTCSP) hosted by the Lauder Institute at the University of Pennsylvania for many years but ending in 2021 (TTCSP, 2021) . McGann invited leading think tank professionals to reflect on critical issues affecting the work of think tanks. The reflections of some authors of the book are worth quoting to introduce the relevance of the work of think tanks and the opportunities and challenges think tanks currently face though there is no explicit reference to megatrends and future research.
“Often, academic work is far away from political realities. It can also be unsuited in its approach if it ignores institutional, legal, and governance constraints. Therefore, think tanks can play a role in translating findings as well as practicing applied research with a more policy-oriented focus that complements more academic work” (Wolff, 2021: p. 54) .
“Midway between academia and politics, these centres of thought have transferred rigorous studies to political praxis, both in terms of public discourse and policy. But is this link still valid at times of increased political contestation and of traditional power structures?” (Morillas, 2021: p. 59) .
“Think tanks are currently caught in a paradox. From environmental and climate injustice, to extreme inequalities and global pandemics, the world faces an extraordinary set of challenges that think tanks can contribute significantly to addressing. Yet, they must do this at a time when profound disruptions such as rapid technological advances, shifting centres of global power, decreasing levels of trust in experts, democratic disorders, and fake news are providing a myriad of new threats and opportunities that challenge the ways in which they currently operate” (Leach, 2021: p. 107) .
To begin, Section 2 of this paper explains how megatrends analysis, future research and strategic foresight relate to and complement each other in understanding future developments while also pointing to some features that distinguish them from each other. Section 3 of this paper discusses the definition and the evolution of megatrends analysis and future research and explores how megatrends discourses and future research have gain traction over the past decades. Section 4 defines think tanks and comments on the evolution of the global landscape of think tanks. With the purpose of illustrating the work of think tanks related to megatrends and future research in different ways, Section 5 introduces eight diverse think tanks from different countries and world regions that either explicitly or implicitly engage in megatrends analysis and future research.
This paper seeks to fill a gap in the academic literature by analysing the evolution of megatrends and future research that has received limited attention. The limited interest of the profession in documenting and analysing its historical evolution could probably be attributed to an inherent preference of megatrends experts and futurists to look forward rather than backward. Zhao and Zhu published a paper on think tanks and social media at the time when this paper was already submitted (Zhao & Zhu, 2023) . This indicates that others currently also realize the relevance of the work of think tanks.
However, there is one landmark publication on think tanks that ceased operations in 2021. The TTCSP’s “Go to Think Tank Report” series (TTCSP, 2021) offers a global database of over 8200 organisations from various countries and regions. Rankings are based on surveys covering 4000 experts from different backgrounds. The reports are referenced by leading media, especially in the United States of America (U.S.) (Chafuen, 2021) . Another database on think Tanks is the Open Think Tank Directory. It was started by the Think Tanks platform that developed from a blog into a platform to which experts across the world contribute analysis and opinions. The database features public information for more than 3600 organisations worldwide. The report series “Think Tank State of the Sector” was started in 2019. The survey-based 2022 report focuses on “How do think tanks view their political and funding contexts?” (Nicolle, Baertl, & Gilbreath, 2022) . There is also the Pakistan-based news platform—The Think Tank Journal, which informs about the work of think tanks around the globe.
TTCP data set and the Open Think Tank directory do not include a category for think tanks working explicitly on megatrends or engaging in future research. However, there is rising attention paid to megatrends analysis and future research by think tanks. Evidence for this was collected through exchanges and interviews with think tanks and experts working in the field of megatrends and future research1. Kuhn and Margellos (2022) dedicated a large part of a book chapter to the role of think tanks in megatrends analysis.
2. Methodology
The research is novel in the sense that it explores the intersection between megatrends discourses, future research and the work of think tanks which has not yet been much addressed by other academic papers or books, mainly due to the diversity of think tanks. This paper is explorative in nature and has to cope with some challenges, especially the absence of any analyses of the work of think tanks in relation to megatrends and future research as well as the limited research on think tanks as a specific type of nonprofit organisations which regroups organisations of diverse background, funding support, and thematic orientation.
Next to the review of the scarce academic literature and consultation of many think tank reports, the methodology of this explorative project included semi-structured interviews with leaders (mostly CEO or head of divisions) of various think tanks in different countries and world regions. Three of the eight think tanks approached for this follow-up paper had already been covered by the book project of the authors (Kuhn & Margellos, 2022) , and five have been identified on the basis of the relevance of their work to the research topic and their interest in the project. Given the large and diverse landscape of think tanks, the selection is by no means a representative sample. However, attention was paid on several criteria of diversity, especially country and regional diversity but also size. Interviewed think tanks included organisations from different countries and world regions and organisations of different sizes and thematic focuses. The interviews cover organisations with an explicit focus on megatrends and future research, while we have also included some others which do not explicitly use such frameworks, but are in fact doing analysis that is relevant to megatrends and future research discourses. Interview partners were also selected on the basis of their expressed interest in participating in the project.
3. Megatrends, Future Research, and Strategic Foresight
Megatrends, future research, and strategic foresight are interconnected and can provide a comprehensive understanding of future developments. However, there are also notable differences between them. While megatrends analysis is more explicitly based on factual data, future studies and strategic foresight rely more on methodologies that involve specific expert input and the use of tools like horizon scanning, road mapping, and scenario development.
Megatrends analysis focuses on identifying major trends and forces that will shape the future over the next decade and beyond, including how these trends intersect with one another. This approach aims to provide deep insights into the dynamics of global trends based on the analysis of data, discourses, and agendas of influential political, academic, and business institutions, social forces, and the media. On the other hand, future research is primarily focused on methodological approaches to forecasting, such as horizon scanning, scenario development, backcasting, and predictive modelling. Both address challenges for humanity and aim to create awareness for the relevance of future literacy.
Strategic foresight, meanwhile, is a more proactive approach to preparing organisations, companies, groups, or individuals for change. It involves a structured and systematic process of exploring and creating possible futures, and developing robust strategies and plans that can handle a range of different scenarios. Strategic forecasting is influenced by a variety of tailor-made business approaches of different organisations and companies, which makes it difficult to generalise on its significance for addressing challenges for humanity and promoting the common good.
4. Definition and Evolution of Megatrends Analysis and Future Research
Global megatrends are trends with a ten to fifteen years perspective and beyond that strongly influence different spheres of life in many countries and at different levels, covering political, economic, natural environmental, social, and cultural dimensions (Kuhn & Margellos, 2022: p. 21) . They describe large-scale, long-term shifts with wide-reaching effects across different localities and world regions that attract attention from global leaders in politics, business, academia, media, and social affairs. Think tanks, research institutes and consulting firms are among key players in megatrends analysis, but megatrends are seldom defined in a scientifically rigorous way based on a set of criteria.
In their book “Global Perspectives on Megatrends”, Kuhn and Margellos (2022) attempted to adopt a comprehensive and somewhat systematic approach to megatrends. Their concise pentagon model, as shown in Figure 1, applies five criteria to prioritize big trends: 1) level of coverage by research activities, 2) level of political attention, 3) level of interest to global investors and business communities, 4) level of media coverage, and 5) attention paid by social movements.
The authors adopted a comprehensive, global approach to megatrends, including political and social trends, such as rising inequality and migration. The 12 megatrends identified in the book are: climate action and sustainability; digitalization; inequality; demographic trends, urbanisation, and smart cities; health and nutrition trends; green economy; sustainable finance; multipolar world order and the future of multilateralism; democracy and governance innovations; civilizational developments (diversity, individualization and loneliness, gender shift, and identity politics); and migration (Kuhn & Margellos, 2022) . The authors published a 12 pages Megatrends Update in Summer 2023 (Kuhn & Margellos, 2023) which covered relevant political, economic, and social developments in 2022/2023 as well as emerging trends in the field of the twelve global megatrends prioritised in their book.
John Naisbitt was a pioneer of megatrends and future studies. His book “Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives” was first published in 1982 (Naisbitt, 1982) . It focused mainly on the United States but also attempted to present a global outlook. Naisbitt accurately predicted the change from industrialized to information societies. Megatrends was published in 57 countries and sold more than 14 million copies. Subsequently, Naisbit worked for several academic institutions and founded the China Naisbit Institute at Tianjin University in China in 2009.
4.1. How Do Megatrends Relate to the Work of Consulting Firms, Think-Tanks and the UN?
Today, a large number of academic institutions, think tanks, researchers and analysts engage in learning, analysing, and forecasting future developments. Asset managers of many big investment fonds show a keen interest in megatrends research. Major consulting firms, including McKinsey, PwC, Deloitte, Roland Berger and many others as well as major think tanks like the World Economic Forum, Bertelsmann Foundation and Brookings conduct rigorous analyses of global risks and trends. In the Nordic countries, future research has a particularly strong tradition. The Copenhagen Institute of Future Studies (CIFS), covered in section six of this paper, is considered a pioneer in this field. SITRA, financed by the Finish Innovation Fund and supervised by the Finish Parliament, is another important player in future research (Kuhn & Margellos, 2022: pp. 42-43) . Today, however, non-profit institutes in many countries, individual experts, but also international organisations like the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and national-level Ministries engage in future research. Megatrends and future research are also of vital interest for multinational corporations and asset managers. The German car-manufacturer Volkswagen runs a unit staffed with 27 future research experts. The number of academic publications on megatrends and future research has been steadily increasing over the years2, as has the number of consulting firms and other organisations using foresight and scenario planning. We have also observed a growing interest in future-focused events and a rising popularity of foresight and scenario planning.
Though not explicitly related to megatrends, the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (United Nations, 2015) exhibits strong connections to megatrends discourses and is worth mentioning because it attracts widespread attention by think tanks and futurists. The 2030 Agenda covers aspects of economic, social, and environmental development and stresses the importance of multi-stakeholder partnerships at different levels (SDG 17). The 17 Goals were adopted by all member states of the United Nations in 2015. The German Agency for International Cooperation, die Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), states that “Global megatrends provide the backdrop for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development” (GIZ, 2017) .
The differences between the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and megatrends frameworks lie in the degree of formality. The 2030 Agenda has been adopted by states and consists of detailed and hierarchically-structured goals and processes, including defined roles of custodian agencies and formal arrangements for monitoring and reporting on 232 indicators associated with 169 targets. The megatrends framework is more fluid and anarchical and focuses more on opportunities rather than highlighting problems or pointing to deficits, especially when used by consulting firms.
4.2. Could Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Be Used for Megatrends Analysis and Forecasting?
With the advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI), it will soon become much easier to monitor, identify, and even analyse (mega)trends in real time. Researchers in the Medical University of Vienna, as far back as February of 2023, had already identified possible pathways for GPT-3 (ChatGPT) to aid in solving societal megatrends (Haluza & Jungwirth, 2023) . Having access to enormous volumes of real-time data, AI has already been successful in conducting advanced market research and creating an accurate picture of trends at play. It is only a matter of time before similar tools are developed for governing bodies, organisations, or companies to conduct risk assessments and identify megatrends before they are visible to us.
For example, we have come across a business case for developing AI-based self-learning taxonomies for megatrends analysis. The Berlin-based start-up company Anacode is venturing into megatrends analysis based on big data and targets the financial industry and larger corporations with their product (Anacode, 2023) .
5. Definition and Evolution of Think Tanks
The landscape of think tanks is diverse, not just in terms of size or political orientation. They apply diverse strategies of knowledge dissemination and policy advice. The term think tank was first used in military jargon. According to Ladi (2023) , it was first used during World War II to describe a safe place where plans and strategies could be discussed. There is no uniform definition, and the meaning has changed over the past decades, especially in the context of the proliferation of private non-profit policy research organisations in the United States. The Merriam-Webster Dictionary describes a think tank as “an institute, corporation, or group organized to study a particular subject (such as a policy issue or a scientific problem) and provide information, ideas, and advice” (Merriam-Webster Dictionary, 2022) . The United Nations (2003) has published a report, “Thinking the Unthinkable: From Thought to Policy—The Role of Think Tanks in Shaping Government Strategy”. The report speaks to the increasing complexity and technical nature of policy problems, which give way to think tanks aiming to become more important in influencing policymaking.
However, “what matters is not the label but the function, or functions, that think tanks fulfil” (Mendizabal, 2021) . Think tanks typically conduct research, engage in policy dialogue activities, and provide advice. More specifically, “they inform and educate decisionmakers and the public, promote ideas, advocate for change, hold decisionmakers to account, train the next generations of decisionmakers and create and nurture spaces for informed debate on matters of public interest” (Mendizabal, 2021: p. 1) . In many countries, especially in the United States and in the United Kingdom but as well as at the level of the European Union, think tanks have developed into prime actors shaping agendas of policymakers and influencing decision-makers in business and finance. While it has been acknowledged that focused intellectual groups have played an influential role in governance for centuries (royal courts, elite societies, and business clubs, for example), think tanks are considered “a distinctly 20th century invention” (Barham & Barham, 2021: p. 1) . The Club of Rome, founded in 1968 at Academia dei Lincei in Rome, is an early example of a prominent think tank grouping together political and economic leaders, including many former heads of state or international organisations. Its first Report on the Limits to Growth (Club of Rome, 1972) sold 30 million copies and was translated into 30 languages. Its reports still receive much attention across the world.
The Center for China and Globalization (CCG), a leading think tank in China and well-networked in the global think tanks community, describes the function of a think tank as follows: “Through research reports, seminars, forums and meetings, as well as symposiums and proposals, think tanks play a role in setting agendas and conducting policy interpretation and research in the public arena. They also reflect public opinion and provide policy recommendations to the relevant government agencies through national consultation and democratic mechanisms” (CCG, 2021) .
Think tanks are sometimes perceived as elitist lobby organisations whispering recommendations to policymakers. Rand Corporation in the United States and Chatham House in the United Kingdom are two examples who have contributed to such images of think tanks among the general public in Germany and other countries. Whether or not think tanks are considered elitist organisations can depend on various factors such as their funding sources, their areas of focus, and the level of access they have to policymaking processes. Some argue that think tanks are elitist organisations because they are often funded by wealthy individuals or corporations, and their research and policy recommendations may not always align with the interests of the general public. Additionally, some think tanks may have a limited pool of experts who come from elite academic backgrounds or have ties to political elites. On the other hand, we have witnessed a proliferation of think tanks staffed with experts from diverse backgrounds which provide valuable research and analysis to help inform policy decisions. Many think tanks also prioritise engaging with a broader range of stakeholders and the public through events and publications.
Nevertheless, the think tanks sector exists and operates on a sensitive ideological backdrop, which the actors in the space seek to navigate carefully. In authoritarian regimes but also in countries with nationalist agendas like India, for example, the space is constrained, and dissenting views are marginalised at best, whereas in others like the U.S., Germany and other countries of the European Union, there are think tanks with explicit ties to political parties, clearly acting in support of the affiliated parties’ views and goals, such as the political foundations in Germany. One of the most striking examples is the America First Policy Institute (AFPI) though registered as a 501(c)(3) non-profit, non-partisan research institute supports the re-election of former President Donald Trump. The Economist described the aspiration of this think tank which was established after Donald Trump lost his bid for re-election in 2020 as an “administration-in-waiting” and points to the fact that its staff of 172 includes eight former cabinet secretaries (The Economist, 2023) . According to the same article in The Economist, the Heritage Foundation is an even bigger player in support of Republican candidates.
The field of megatrends, on the other hand, though fragmented to the extent that different actors identify varying megatrends which are evidently influenced by diverging worldviews and ideologies, is much more focused on data and technocratic professionalism. As such, we also observe a marked absence of openly ideologically driven think-tanks in the megatrends research space.
While recognising the growth of the think tanks sector, it is important to understand that the analytical capacity of many think tanks often depends on one or a few leading experts. In the field of future studies, the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) was founded in 2002 and has more than 500 members which act as analysts, consultants, and speakers and are affiliated to diverse think tanks, University departments and consulting firms.
Typologies of Think Tanks have been proposed by, among others, Weaver and McGann (2000) and Thunert (2006) who distinguished between 1) Academic Think Tanks, 2) Advocacy Organisations, and 3) Party Think Tanks. For example, in Germany, as in many European and Asian countries, academic think tanks are the dominant group while in Anglo-Saxon countries private think tanks which are registered as nonprofits play a more important role. Such findings of Thunert (2006) on the difference between the think tank landscape in continental Europe and Anglo-Saxon countries is still valid according to our observations and talks with experts. Private advocacy organisations play a less significant role than in Anglo-Saxon countries (Thunert, 2006) . In Germany, political foundations also play a significant role. They are affiliated to parties represented in the German Parliament and are largely funded by the Government and exercise different functions, including implementation of development cooperation projects as well as managing scholarships. For example, Konrad Adenauer Foundation which is affiliated to the long-time ruling Christian Democratic Union (CDU), calls one of its five departments, the Department Analysis & Consulting, a “think tank” while considering itself “more than a think tank”3.
While the authors’ own observations and exchanges with experts suggest that most established think tanks, are not much affected by the burgeoning megatrends discourse and analysis of future scenarios, there are some notable exceptions, such as the Bertelsmann Foundation in Germany, a leading private think tank, which has set up a Future Challenges team and publishes on megatrends (Bertelsmann Foundation, 2019) .
More recently, we see a trend that non-profit organisations engaged in policy-oriented work prefer to work under the label of think tank rather than advocacy-organisations because advocacy work, especially involvement in campaign work, has become under scrutiny from government administration and courts in some countries, especially in the Global South and when it involved foreign funding. India and China are prime examples for this development. However, even some advocacy non-profit organisations in Western Europe face legal challenges. The Association pour la Taxation des Transactions financières et pour l’Action Citoyenne (Attac), an activist organisation originally created to promote the establishment of a tax on foreign exchange transactions, lost its tax privileges in Germany due its involvement in political work (beck-aktuell, 2021) .
The TTCSP (2021) has published the most authoritative report on Think Tanks over many years until the project was discontinued around the year 2021 when lead author James McGann tragically passed away. The TTCSP’s GGTTI Report was designed “to identify and recognise centres of excellence in all the major areas of public policy research and in every region of the world” (TTCSP, 2021) . The report provides the following definition of think tanks:
“Think tanks are public-policy research analysis and engagement organizations that generate policy-oriented research, analysis and advice on domestic and international issues, thereby enabling policymakers and the public to make informed decisions about public policy” (TTCSP, 2021) .
The number of think tanks included in the TTCSP GGTTI database has increased steadily over the years, from just over 5000 in 2012 to over 8000 in 2020. Growth was also significant outside the U.S. which still hosts by far the largest number of think tanks of any country in the world. Barham (2023) published a list of the most influential think tanks in academic influence which includes only one organisation in the U.S. among the top ten. Brookings, The Heritage Foundation and the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) top the list.
We have witnessed a growth of think tanks in the Global South, especially in emerging markets and in countries which are looking to assert themselves in international relations. The Chinese government started to promote think tanks with Chinese characteristics soon after Jinping Xi took over as President in March 2013. Most Chinese think tanks are affiliated to single Ministries, but there are also more independent think tanks registered as non-profits and working on a variety of issues, with different Ministries and government agencies, especially on global issues. Xue, Zhu, and Han (2018) argue “that the success of Chinese think tanks has been driven primarily by greater official recognition of their value, due to increasingly complex domestic and international problems stemming from a fragmented decision-making system…consequently, by late 2015, the new policies led to the selection of twenty five ‘pilot high-end think tanks’ and the establishment of the management system of think tanks in China” (p. 49). Khan and Köllner (2018) analysed the growing role of Think Tanks in India and pointed out that “India’s foreign policy think tank sector has gained in visibility and vibrancy due to new demand in the wake of India’s expanding international stakes…”. Other reasons for the rise of think tanks in India include better funding and access to information, especially in the case of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA).
The landscape and working cultures of think tanks in a country often reflects characteristics of the political system of this country. Many ruling parties or coalition governments across the world interact closely with think tanks. Chile and two of its major think tanks, Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP) and “Libertad y Desarrollo” (LyD), are prime example for close political ties. In Germany, many retired politicians join the leadership of political foundations affiliated to their political party. At the same time, many politicians have been supported by political foundations during her studies. The Germna foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, was supported by the Heinrich-Boell-Foundation. Notwithstanding, the political foundations also strive to be independent from their parties.
Many of the leading think tanks in the world, including Brookings (Washington D.C.), Bruegel (Brussels), Carnegie (Washington D.C.), Chatham House, (London), the Center for China and Globalization (Beijing), the World Economic Forum (WEF), and many others, have global outreach and focus more on global agendas than on national policy issues. The World Economic Forum (WEF), for example, has more than 13,000 members in 150 countries and supports the Global Shapers Community, a network of young people under the age of 30 working together to address local, regional, and global challenges. It convenes the Davos Forum and publishes the widely referenced Global Risks Report which has been extensively quoted by experts working in the field of megatrends analysis and future research.
Since the 1990s, we have seen a growing number of think tank reports and academic publications dealing with future analysis and megatrends. There are now many smaller and medium-sized institutes and associations that explicitly address megatrends, future research as well as strategic forecast. The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) was founded in 2002 and has more than 500 members. It emerged as a network of practicing futurists who act as analysts, consultants, and speakers.
However, the TTCPS (2021) does not offer a category of think tanks with the thematic focus on megatrends, future research, or strategic forecast. There are many leading think tanks which employ a variety of methods and approaches to megatrends analysis, future research, and strategic foresight, and they play a critical role in shaping policy debates and influencing the direction of public discourse on the future
The number and diversity of organisations engaging in megatrends and future research is increasing. Expert opinion gathered in the context of our research also suggests that big data analytics and growing ICT capacities much facilitated megatrends analysis and future research and motivated smaller organisations to also engage with it.
6. Spotlights on Diverse Think Tanks
This section introduces eight diverse think tanks from different countries and world regions that either explicitly engage in megatrends analysis and future research or work on issues highly relevant for megatrends analysis and future research. We selected the think tanks based on criteria of diversity related to regional, thematic, and methodological focus and dependent on their interest in participating in this research.
Interviews were conducted with the following think tanks:
· Bruegel, Brussels
Bruegel is a leading European Think Tank specialised in economics. It was founded in 2005 with headquarters in Brussels and features high in Think Tank rankings, including the GGTTI. Its research is built around medium-term research programmes targeted at policymakers and decision-makers at the level of the EU, EU member states and those interested in understanding EU policies in other countries and world regions.
· The Millennium Project (MP), Washington
MP is an established global think tank with a strongly decentralized network of Nodes and an explicit focus on future research which is involved in the United Nations 2024 summit on the future.
· Copenhagen Institute of Future Studies (CIFS), Copenhagen
CIFS is one of the earliest European think tanks with high-level expertise on future research and strategic foresight and is implementing projects with diverse stakeholders as well as offering training courses.
· Green Economy Coalition (GEC), London
GEC is the world’s largest alliance for green and fair economies and has 60 organisational members including trade unions, businesses, NGOs, United Nations agencies and citizen’s groups and established eight green economy hubs in Brazil, India, Mongolia, Peru, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda and Caribbean region.
· Center for China and Globalisation (CCG), Beijing
CCG is a well-established, globally recognised and well networked independent nongovernmental Chinese think tank with a broad agenda which focuses on economic, trade, and geopolitical issues and is engaged in dialogue with leading Chinese companies, universities, and government departments of several ministries.
· Center for Civil Society (CSS), Delhi
CSI is an established and internationally well-networked advocacy-oriented non-profit organisation, and is shaping policy discourses in the field of social and economic development and influenced law-making processes in India.
· Cultural Infusion (CI), Melbourne
CI is considered a global leader in diversity research and is working on cultural issues in cooperation with many organisations and big companies, including UNESCO.
· 4Sing, Hamburg
4Singh is a for-profit think tank that offers consulting and coaching services in foresight and strategy development in the field of security and sustainability governance for public and private sector organisations across the world.
We examined their involvement in megatrends analysis and future research and their work on issues related to major discourses relevant for megatrends analysis and future research. We learned about their different orientations, approaches, and changes in their strategies. The scope of this paper does not allow to present the work of these think tanks in detail. Thus, only brief summaries are provided focusing on how these organisations position themselves thematically and within the landscape of global think tanks and which strategies they adopt to maximise their impact.
6.1. Bruegel
Bruegel has a comprehensive research agenda in the field of economics focusing on many issues highly relevant to megatrends discourses. Its research aims to go beyond the analysis of current affairs and short-term dynamics of political and economic developments. Bruegel acknowledges the importance of looking backward and forward in providing advice to policymakers and stresses the relevance of transdisciplinary approaches. According to Bruegel, the financial crisis of 2008/2009 demonstrated that future-oriented research has to go beyond the application of economic models. Consequently, Bruegel values transdisciplinary research and openness to new methodologies, including scenario developments and even science fiction inspired research works4. While Bruegel does not see itself in the map of think tanks engaging specifically in future research or forecasting, it acknowledges the relevance of megatrends and future research and follows methodological developments associated with it. Bruegel (2020) has published one comprehensive study on megatrends at the request for the Milano based Fondazione Cariplo with the title “Megatrends: Key Forces Forging our Futures. A Vision for Europe to Prosper and Best Serve its Citizens”. The study covers political, demographic and environmental shifts. It offers a state-of-the-art analysis of megatrends, including political and social trends such as Migration and Inequality and Societal Cohesion. However, it was more of a specific project rather than part of a megatrends research agenda of Bruegel.
6.2. Millennium Project (MP), Washington
MP has an explicit focus on megatrends analysis. Its 15 Global Challenges provide a framework to assess the global and local prospects for humanity and contribute much to knowledge dissemination on megatrends. The description of the trends is updated each year, since 1996.
MP, under the leadership of Jerome Glenn, puts a lot of emphasis on having a truly global approach, “a global representation” and aims to avoid ideological or country/region bias. MP works through and with “Nodes” (currently 71 across the globe) which enable the MP to quickly access intelligence and to collect analysis and assessments from around the world. It is involved in the preparation of the United Nations Summit of the Future in 2024 and has a strong motivation to guide and lead organisations and experts in providing policy advice in the field of megatrends and future studies.
6.3. Copenhagen Institute of Future Studies (CIFS), Copenhagen
CIFS work contributes towards democratising future thinking and working for common goods. It stresses its ability to convene broadly and to engage with diverse stakeholders and is currently putting emphasis on engaging more with ethical dimensions of future developments. New projects relate to bringing future thinking principles to young people, inserting them into educational systems and developing open-source products for young generations. In cooperation with companies, CIFS stresses the importance of integrating anticipatory leadership thinking in corporate cultures rather than just creating well-designed but gimmick-like foresight tools. CIFS considers itself as a pioneer organisation in future research. It is aware of the current boom in forecasting and megatrends analysis which may provide opportunities for networking but also some quality related risks for the profession. CIFS hosts a UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory Leadership and Futures Capabilities.
6.4. Green Economy Coalition (GEC), London
GEC is an influential green economy network of organisations promoting the green economy and just transition to a sustainable future across countries and regions. Under the previous leadership of Emily Benson and the current leadership of Oliver Greenfield, the work of the coalition relates to the megatrends framework and to system risks. GEC puts a special focus on the intersection of megatrends. The organisation and its network contributed to make the Green Economy a megatrend in itself, and they aim to pro-actively shape megatrends by forging new alliances. Knowledge management is centered around its informative website which comments on recent developments, e.g. reflections on IPCC climate science reports. The GEC realises that policymakers will probably not move beyond incremental change. Thus, their strategy focuses more on new mechanisms of citizen engagement with a purpose to renegotiate social contracts for the green and just transition. GEC is realising that the climate imperative poses challenges to inclusive and democratic governance. Thus, it is crucial to find solutions addressing big social and political divides between and within countries for progressing with the sustainability transition and addressing systemic risks.
6.5. Center for China and Globalisation (CCG), Beijing
CCG has a broad agenda relating to many global megatrends and topics of future research with a focus on economic and trade policies. In the context of extended and sharpened interest in geopolitics and geoeconomics, CCG has got growing global recognition as a non-governmental Chinese think tank and is considered to have a huge knowledge base on internal relations. It benefited from the interest of the Chinese political leadership in policy-oriented academic work on global issues but considers itself as politically independent organisation. CCG is organising many dialogue events, contributes to books publications and publishes newsletters which reach a large audience in China and other countries. Policy advice is provided in the context of many high-level conferences and through direct contact to policymakers. CCG entertains good relations with the Chinese governments and works with several ministries and large companies. Under the leadership of co-founder and President Wang Huiyao (Wang, 2021) , CCG has much contributed to disseminating the concept of think tank work in China and after beyond. It published the book Global Think Tanks 2.0 which delves into the mission, challenges, and future development of Chinese think tanks against complexities in the international arena (Center for China and Globalization, 2023) .
6.6. Center for Civil Society (CCS), Delhi
CCS’s mission is to “advance social change through public policy…”. Its work is based on three pillars: education, livelihood, and governance. CCS provides policy training with the purpose to promote choice and accountability across the private and public sectors. To translate policy into practice, CCS engages with policy and opinion leaders through research, projects, and policy training.
Under the leadership of Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Lakshmi Sampath Goyal who previously served as the CEO of the India Sanitation Coalition, the organisation has further strengthened its relationship with think tanks and other non-profit organisations networking on the national and international level.
CCS has influenced many policy-making and law-making processes in India, and closely follows and guides economic, social, and political discourse on India’s future. While CCS has no explicit focus on megatrends, future studies, or strategic foresight, it is interested in such topics and familiar with leading discourses related to megatrends. CCS emphasises that it always aims to stay on top of the agenda of key social and governance issues in India. It is internationally well-networked due to affiliations with various organisations, including liberal think tanks and foundations in the West which have provided funding support to CCS.
6.7. Cultural Infusion (CI), Melbourne
Peter Mousaferiadis founded Cultural Infusion in Melbourne in 2002. The organisation has attracted some outstanding talents and established a good track record in the field of intercultural understanding. By 2015, Cultural Infusion expanded into the digital world, releasing award-winning apps, Joko’s World and Sound Infusion. CI developed and promotes the Diversity Atlas, an online survey which is used as part of training programs to assess and monitor diversity within companies and organisations by measuring demographics and intersectional data across the four interconnected cultural diversity pillars: 1) Religion & Worldview (7900+ religions, branches and denominations); 2) Country of Birth (UN list of countries and independent territories); 3) Language (7900 + all spoken languages worldwide); and 4) Ethnicity & Race (8000 + different global ethnic groups). It is developing comprehensive data sets on diversity and cooperation with governments and multinational corporations in their effort to more adequately recognize and promote diversity. CI has made contributions to promote the global megatrend of diversity and has participated in a megatrends project.
6.8. 4Sing, Hamburg
4Sing is a network of foresight experts working in different countries and guided by Adrian Taylor, a foresight expert, strategist, change agent and business coach with extensive and diverse international experience. 4Sing works about equal parts for the government and non-profit clients. 4sing experts focus on strategic foresight and strategy development targeting different industries, including the energy, utility, chemical, and automotive industries. 4Sing has worked in different countries across the globe, especially in Europe and Asia. It uses technological tools to enhance and visualise its scenario and system development work. While its scenario and strategic foresight work with public sector or non-profit clients, sometimes involves external parties or is organised as a multi-stakeholder event, the more strategy-focussed consulting work with the private sector usually just involves different departments within one company as strategy development is sensitive in a competitive business environment. 4Sing cooperation and networking partners include organisations working in the field of design thinking, horizon scanning, action research and strategic foresight, especially EIDOS, the Global X Network, Cognitive Edge, Futures Caper, Futurists, Shaping Tomorrow and 4strat.
7. Conclusion
The work of think tanks in the specific field of megatrends and future research has not yet received much scholarly attention. However, evidence from reports of think tanks and information collected through exchanges and interviews with think tanks suggest that it is relevant to study the work of think tanks in the field of megatrends analysis and future research.
Today, it is easier to learn, analyse, and forecast future developments in different parts of the world as we live in a much more globalised world with better access to data, information and quick survey and networking tools. Thus, we are witnessing a significant growth of larger and smaller think tanks engaged in explicit analysis of megatrends, future studies, and strategic foresight or working on issues that would qualify as megatrends issues. The many diverse think tanks are using different conceptual frameworks, methodologies, and tools. This may, at least in the long run, lead to a proliferation of new methodologies and enhance the quality of megatrends analysis and future research. Future literacy is likely to receive more attention from international organisations as well as universities and the education and consulting industry.
The majority of established think tanks, however, are not deeply affected by the burgeoning megatrends discourse and do not specifically engage in future studies or use strategic foresight tools. There are some notable exceptions like the Bertelsmann Foundation, a large German think tank, which has recently taken up megatrends analysis and forecasting. However, many think tanks claim to be interested in and sometimes inspired by megatrends and future research. The case of Bruegel shows that they are open to new methodologies, including scenario development.
Most of the leading think tanks are situated in the United States and EU countries, but other parts of the world are catching up, including China and India. The knowledge management and policy advice strategies of think tanks usually follow their function and are diverse. Many of them concentrate on producing analytical reports including data analysis and policy recommendations, engaging in multi-stakeholder exchanges, and organising conferences and other dialogue events. The UN Summit of the Future in 2024 (United Nations, n.d.) reflects the growing attention paid by international organisations to future research and their interest in engaging with think tanks and megatrends experts in exchanges and dialogue events on the future of humanity.
Funding
The German Research Foundation and the Open Access Publication Funds of the Freie Universität Berlin covered the publication fees of this paper in the OJPS.
NOTES
1We have also made inquiries on the influence of megatrends discourses and think tanks to ChatGPT, an artificial intelligence language model developed by OpenAI (ChatGPT, Version March 14, 2023). We are aware of the ongoing discussion in academia to ban the use and citation of ChatGPT in academic works. We believe that the discussion has not come to an end. While we refrain from quoting our inquiries in the main text of this paper, we would like to draw attention that ChatGPT response are currently biased toward mainstream U.S. American think tanks as ChatGPT collects its artificial knowledge and intelligence from big data analysis and the large majority of openly available reference to think tanks is found in the U.S.
2According to Web of Science, the number of articles published on the topic of “megatrends” has more than doubled from 2010 to 2021.
3Talk with Ariatani Wolff, a KAS scholarship holder on March 30, 2023.
4Bruegel’s head of Governance, Outreach and HR, Giuseppe Porcaro, contributed to a book project engaging in factual and theoretical perspectives using science-fiction as a lab and “seeking to open up a glimpse into the many worlds, and by extension many futures, of contemporary global politics” (Horn, Mert, & Müller, 2023: p. 2) .
NOTES
*Corresponding author and lead author.