The Validity of the Thermohydrogravidynamic Theory Concerning the Predicted Dates of the Maximal Temporal Intensifications of the Global Seismotectonic Processes of the Earth during the Range 2020 - 2023 AD ()
1. Introduction
The problem of the long-term and short-term predictions of the strong earthquakes is the significant problem (Richter, 1958) of the modern geophysics (Simonenko, 2012, 2013, 2016) related with the founded (Simonenko, 2012, 2014a) increased intensifications of the global natural (seismotectonic, volcanic, climatic and magnetic) processes of the Earth during the established ranges 2020 - 2026 AD, 2037.38 - 2043.38 AD and 2055 - 2064 AD (Simonenko, 2012, 2014a). The evaluation (in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (Simonenko, 2012, 2014a)) of the forthcoming ranges of the maximal temporal intensifications of the global seismotectonic processes of the Earth is the significant first step to solve the problem of the long-term deterministic predictions of the strongest earthquakes of the Earth. We calculated in advance (based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (3) and (4) determining the maximal temporal intensifications of the global seismotectonic processes of the Earth) the dates
(Simonenko, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) and
,
(Simonenko, 2019, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) corresponding, respectively, to the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) and to the local minimal combined planetary and solar inte- gral energy gravitational influences (4) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
The first aim of this article is to present the convincing evidence that the strongest earthquakes (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred near the calculated (in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (3) and (4) used in the first approximation of the circular orbits of the planets around the Sun) dates
(Simonenko, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) and
,
(Simonenko, 2019, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022).
The second aim of this article is to present the short-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology (based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principle (3)) for evaluation of the maximal magnitude of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD (according to the U.S. Geological Survey).
In Section 2 we present the fundamentals of the developed thermohydrogravidynamic theory (Simonenko, 2007a, 2007b, 2012, 2013, 2014a, 2014b, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019). In Section 2.1 we present the established (Simonenko, 2007a, 2007b, 2012, 2013, 2014a, 2019) generalized differential formulation (1) of the first law of thermodynamics. In Section 2.2 we present the established (Simonenko, 2012, 2014a) global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (3) and (4) determining the maximal temporal intensifications of the global seismotectonic, volcanic, climatic and magnetic processes of the Earth near the corresponding time moments (dates)
and
.
In Section 3.1 we present the convincing evidence that the strongest earthquakes (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred near the calculated (in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (3) and (4) used in the first approximation of the circular orbits of the planets around the Sun) dates
(Simonenko, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) and
,
(Simonenko, 2019, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) corresponding, respectively, to the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) and to the local minimal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (4) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
In Section 3.2 we present the application of the short-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology for evaluation of the maximal magnitude
of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD (according to the U.S. Geological Survey).
In Section 4 we present conclusions.
2. Fundamentals of the Thermohydrogravidynamic Theory
2.1. The Generalized First Law of Thermodynamics
The long-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology (Simonenko, 2020, 2021, 2022) is based on the established (Simonenko, 2006, 2007a, 2007b, 2012, 2013) generalized differential formulation of the first law of thermodynamics (for an individual finite continuum region
subjected to the non-stationary combined (cosmic and terrestrial) Newtonian gravitational field and non-potential terrestrial stress forces):
(1)
where
is the classical (Gibbs, 1873; De Groot & Mazur, 1962) internal thermal energy of the continuum region
,
is the established (Simonenko, 2006, 2007a, 2007b) macroscopic kinetic energy of the continuum region
,
is the established (Simonenko, 2006, 2007a, 2007b) macroscopic potential gravitational energy (of the continuum region
) related with the non-stationary potential
of the gravitational field,
is the classical (Gibbs, 1873; De Groot & Mazur, 1962) differential total heat flux to (for
) or from (for
) the continuum region
,
is the established (Simonenko, 2006, 2007a, 2007b) generalized differential work done by non-potential stress forces acting on the boundary surface
of the continuum region
,
(2)
is the established (Simonenko, 2007a, 2007b, 2012, 2013, 2014a, 2016) differential (during the differential time interval
) energy gravitational influence (as the result of the Newtonian non-stationary gravitation) on the continuum region
characterized by the local density
of mass distribution.
2.2. The Global Prediction Thermohydrogravidynamic Principles
The first and the second global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (determining the maximal temporal intensifications of the global seismotectonic, volcanic, climatic and magnetic processes of the Earth near the corresponding dates
and
) are formulated (based on the term (2) of the generalized differential formulation (1) of the first law of thermodynamics) for the internal rigid core
of the Earth (Simonenko, 2012, 2014a):
(3)
and
(4)
where
is the mass density of the internal rigid core
,
is the combined planetary and solar gravitational potential (Simonenko, 2012, 2013, 2014a, 2019) in the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
3. Results and Discussions
3.1. The Application of the Global Prediction Thermohydrogravidynamic Principles for Evidence of the Cosmic Energy Gravitational Genesis of the Strongest Earthquakes Occurred near the Predicted Dates of the Range 2020 - 2023 AD
To confirm the cosmic energy gravitational genesis of the strongest (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) earthquakes of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred near the calculated (in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principle (3) used for the first approximation of the circular orbits of the planets around the Sun) dates
(Simonenko, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2021) and
(Simonenko, 2022) (corresponding to the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth), we present Table 1 of the strongest earthquakes of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred near the predicted dates
(i = 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
We see (based on Table 1) that the strongest (characterized by the magnitudes
according to the U.S. Geological Survey) earthquakes of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred on the dates
(i = 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) near the calculated (in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principle (3)) dates
(Simonenko, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2021) and
(Simonenko, 2022) corresponding to the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth. The closeness (as it is evident from the column for the difference
in Table 1) of the dates
and
(for i = 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) gives the first convincing evidence of the cosmic energy gravitational genesis of the strongest (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) earthquakes of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred near the predicted
Table 1. The analysis of the previous strongest earthquakes (characterized by the magnitudes
according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the Earth occurred on the dates
(i = 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023) near the calculated dates
(Simonenko, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022) dates
,
,
and
corresponding to the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
The strongest (during the last 6 years) magnetic anomaly observed on March 23, 2023 AD (according to the US Space Weather Prediction Center and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) near the predicted (Simonenko, 2022) date
(corresponding approximately to April 7, 2023 AD) is the additional real evidence of the cosmic energy gravitational genesis of the maximal intensifications of the global magnetic processes of the Earth.
We presented on the 11th International Conference on Geology and Geophysics (Simonenko, 2021) the satisfactory explanation (based on the established long-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology) of the maximal (during the considered range from December 7, 2019 to April 18, 2020 AD) magnitude
(given in Table 1) of the strongest earthquake occurred on January 28, 2020 AD near 21.91 days after the previously calculated (Simonenko, 2021) date
. We presented on the 12th International Conference on Geology and Geophysics (Simonenko, 2022) the satisfactory explanation (in the frame of the long-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology) of the maximal magnitude
(given in Table 1) of the strongest (during the considered range from October 27, 2020 to May 17, 2021 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 4, 2021 AD near 26.47 days after the previously calculated (Simonenko, 2020) date
. The possibility to explain (based on the long-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology (Simonenko, 2020, 2021, 2022) the maximal magnitudes
and
(according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the strongest earthquake of the Earth occurred on January 28, 2020 AD and on March 4, 2021 AD, respectively, gives the second convincing evidence of the cosmic energy gravitational genesis of the strongest earthquakes of the Earth occurred near the predicted (Simonenko, 2019, 2020, 2021) dates
and
.
We see (based on Table 2) that the strongest (characterized by the magnitudes
according to the U.S. Geological Survey) earthquakes of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2022 AD) occurred on the dates
(i = 2020, 2021, 2022) near the predicted (calculated in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principle (4) used for the first approximation of the circular orbits of the planets around the Sun) dates
,
(Simonenko, 2019, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) corresponding to the local minimal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (4) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
The closeness (as it is evident from the column for the difference
in Table 2) of the dates
and
Table 2. The analysis of the previous strongest earthquakes (characterized by the magnitudes
according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the Earth occurred on the dates
(i = 2020, 2021, 2022) near the calculated dates
,
(Simonenko, 2019, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) of the local minimal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (4) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
(for i = 2020, 2021, 2022) gives the third convincing evidence of the cosmic energy gravitational genesis of the strongest (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) earthquakes of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2022 AD) occurred near the predicted (Simonenko, 2019, 2021, 2022) dates
,
and
corresponding to the local minimal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (4) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
We have calculated the forthcoming date
(corresponding to the local minimal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influence (4) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth) and the next forthcoming date
corresponding to the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influence (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth.
3.2. The Short-Term Thermohydrogravidynamic Technology for Evaluation of the Maximal Magnitude of the Strongest Earthquake of the Earth during the March, 2023 AD
The second aim of the article is related with the fact (according to the related presentation on the 13th International Conference on Geology and Geophysics) that the magnitude 7.0 of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth (occurred on March 16, 2023 AD) may be evaluated in advance based on the analysis (in the frame of the developed short-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology) of the previous strongest (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) earthquakes of the Earth.
We introduce the five independent variables (characterizing the strongest earthquakes of the Earth for the year i AD):
,
,
,
,
, where
is the date of the strongest earthquake of the Earth occurred near the date
(for the year i AD) of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influence (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth and on the Earth as a whole,
is the date of the Full Moon, which is nearest to the date
,
is the calculated non-dimensional value (for the year i AD) of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influence
(Simonenko, 2014a) on the Earth,
is the maximal magnitude of the more strongest earthquake of the Earth occurred on the date
near the date
(for the year i AD) of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influence (3). We have the following calculated in advance dates:
(Simonenko, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2021) and
(Simonenko, 2022). We assume that the ma- ximal theoretical magnitude
of the strongest earthquake of the Earth (occurred on the date
near the date
(for the year i AD) is given by the relation
(5)
The five unknown coefficients
can be calculated (based on the method of the least squares generalized for the five independent variables
) from the solution of the system of the five linear equations
(6)
where the empirical coefficients
and
are given by the following relations
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
(11)
Considering the more strongest two earthquake given in the Table 1 (Simonenko, 2021: p. 190), we calculated the four independent variables
,
,
,
(given for i = 1, 2 in Table 3) presented with the corresponding real maximal magnitudes
. Based on the five independent variables
,
,
,
,
(given for i = 1, 2 in Table 3), we calculated (for N = 2) the empirical coefficients
and
given by the relations (7)-(11). We calculated (for N = 2) the numerical coefficients
,
,
,
and
from the numerical solution (with the double precision) of the system (6) of five linear equations. Using the calculated (for N = 2) numerical coefficients
, we calculated based on the formula (5) (for the calculated independent variables
corresponding to March 16, 2023 AD and presented in Table 3) the theoretical magnitude 6.45, which is near the real magnitude 7.0 of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD. Table 3 and Table 4 present the calculated theoretical magnitudes
based on the formula (5) for the presented calculated (for i = 1964, 2011, 1975, 1988 and 2023) non-dimensional values
:
(12)
of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences
on the Earth (Simonenko, 2014a) normalized on the maximal integral energy gravitational influence
of the Mercury on the Earth (Simonenko, 2007b, 2013).
Table 3 presents the real maximal magnitudes
of the occurred strongest two (i = 1, 2) earthquakes of the Earth (Simonenko, 2021, p. 190, Table 1) and the real maximal magnitude 7.0 of the strongest (during the March 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD. Table 3 presents also the differences
between the theoretical calculated magnitudes
and the real maximal magnitudes
.
Table 4 presents the four (i = 1, 2, 3, 4) strongest earthquakes of the Earth. We calculated the following dates:
and
along with the dates
(Simo-
Table 3. The theoretical magnitudes
(calculated based on the formula (5) used for the numerical coefficients
calculated for N = 2) corresponding to March 28, 1964 AD (i = 1), March 11, 2011 AD (i = 2) and to March 16, 2023 AD characterized by the corresponding calculated variables
,
,
for March 28, 1964 AD (i = 1), March 11, 2011 AD (i = 2) and for March 16, 2023 AD.
Table 4. The calculated magnitudes (based on the formula (5) used for the numerical coefficients
calculated for N = 4) corresponding to March 28, 1964 AD (i = 1), May 26, 1975 AD (i = 2), March 6, 1988 AD (i = 3), March 11, 2011 AD (i = 4) and to March 16, 2023 AD characterized by the calculated independent variables
,
,
corresponding to March 28, 1964 AD (i = 1), May 26, 1975 AD (i = 2), March 6, 1988 AD (i = 3), March 11, 2011 AD (i = 4) and to March 16, 2023 AD.
nenko, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2021), and
(Simonenko, 2022) calculated in advance. Considering (for N = 4) the four
strongest earthquakes presented in Table 4, we calculated (for the corresponding calculated empirical coefficients
and
given by the relations (7)-(11) for N = 4) the following numerical coefficients:
,
,
,
and
from the numerical solution (with the double precision) of the system (6) of the five linear equations.
Table 4 presents the theoretical calculated magnitudes
based on the formula (5) for the presented calculated non-dimensional values
(for 1964 AD, 1975 AD, 1988 AD, 2011 AD and 2023 AD) of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (Simonenko, 2020, 2021, 2022) on the Earth. Table 4 presents also the differences
between the theoretical calculated magnitudes
and the real maximal magnitudes
. Using the calculated numerical coefficients
for N = 4, we calculated based on the formula (5) (for the calculated independent variables
corresponding to March 16, 2023 AD and presented in Table 4) the theoretical magnitude 7.69, which is near the real magnitude 7.0 of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD. The theoretical calculated mean magnitude
(based on the correspon- ding theoretical calculated magnitudes 6.45 and 7.69 given in Table 3 and in Table 4, respectively, for March 16, 2023 AD) is very close to the real magnitude 7.0 of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD.
The relation (5) for the maximal theoretical magnitude
(of the possible strongest earthquake of the Earth, which can occur on the date
near the date
(for the year i AD) of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influence (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth) is not the universal formula with the numerical coefficients
calculated for N = 2 and for N = 4. The relation (5) (with the numerical coefficients
calculated for N = 2 and for N = 4) can be considered (according to the thermohydrogravidynamic theory (Simonenko, 2007-2022) and according to the developed short- term thermohydrogravidynamic technology) for evaluation of the maximal magnitude
of the possible strongest (during the March of the year i AD) earthquake of the Earth, which can occur on the date
of the March of the year i AD characterized by the condition
.
4. Conclusion
We have presented in Section 3.1 the convincing evidence that the strongest earthquakes (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the Earth (during the range 2020 - 2023 AD) occurred near the predicted (calculated in advance based on the global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (3) and (4) used for the first approximation of the circular orbits of the planets around the Sun) dates
(Simonenko, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2019, 2020),
(Simonenko, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022) and
,
(Simonenko, 2019, 2021),
(Simonenko, 2022). It means that the established (Simonenko, 2012, 2014a) global prediction thermohydrogravidynamic principles (3) and (4) (used for the first approximation of the circular orbits of the planets around the Sun) represent the significant theoretical basis of the established long-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology (Simonenko, 2020, 2021, 2022).
We have demonstrated the short-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology (presented on the 13th International Conference on Geology and Geophysics) for evaluation of the maximal theoretical magnitude
of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD near the previously calculated (Simonenko, 2022) date
of the local maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influence (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth. We have shown the good agreement between the evaluated (based on the developed short-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology) theoretical calculated mean magnitude
(of the possible strong earthquake of the Earth, which can occur on March 16, 2023 AD) and the real maximal magnitude M = 7.0 (according to the U.S. Geological Survey) of the strongest (during the March, 2023 AD) earthquake of the Earth occurred on March 16, 2023 AD near the previously calculated (Simonenko, 2022) date
. The good agreement between the theoretical calculated mean magnitude
and the real maximal magnitude M = 7.0 (during the March, 2023 AD) confirms the cosmic energy gravitational genesis of this earthquake occurred on March 16, 2023 AD. This good agreement is the confirmation that the strongest earthquakes of the Earth (occurred near the calculated dates
of the maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth) have the founded (Simonenko, 2012, 2013, 2018, 2021, 2022) cosmic energy gravitational genesis. We have concluded (as the main conclusion made on the 13th International Conference on Geology and Geophysics) that the maximal magnitudes of the strongest earthquakes of the Earth (occurred near the calculated (in advance) dates
of the maximal combined planetary and solar integral energy gravitational influences (3) on the internal rigid core
of the Earth) can be predicted (in advance) based on the presented short-term thermohydrogravidynamic technology.
Acknowledgements
S. V. S. thanks the Editor, Prof. Lois Huang and the Organizing Committee of the 13th International Conference on Geology and Geophysics for the possibility to present this result and for the publication of the article in this conference journal. The author thanks also the Editorial Board of the journal and Prof. Lois Huang with gratitude for the editorial comments intended for improvement of the final text of the article.
Funding for Investigation
The investigation was performed in the framework of the Russian Federal programs: The study of anomalous geophysical fields as the basis for examining of the structure, physical parameters, geodynamics of deep geospheres, and forecasting of seismogenic processes in the Far Eastern seas in the northwestern Pacific, Registration No. 121021500053-6.