Temporal Dynamics in COVID-19 Transmission: Case of Some African Countries ()
ABSTRACT
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a global threat to public
health and economy. The potential burden of this pandemic in developing world,
particularly the African countries, is much concerning. With the aim of
providing supporting evidence for decision making, this paper studies the
dynamics of COVID-19 transmission through time in selected African countries.
Time-dependent reproduction number (Rt) is one of the tools employed to quantify temporal dynamics of the
disease. Pattern of the estimated reproduction numbers showed that
transmissibility of the disease has been fluctuating through time in most of
the countries included in this study. In few countries such as South Africa and
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), these estimates dropped quickly and stayed
stable, but greater than 1, for months. Regardless of their variability through
time, the estimated reproduction numbers
remain greater than or nearly equal to 1 in all countries. Another Statistical model used in this study, namely Autoregressive
Conditional Poisson (ACP) model, showed that expected (mean) number of new
cases is significantly dependent on short
range change in new cases in all countries. In countries where there is
no persistent trend in new cases, current mean number of new cases (on day t) depend on both previous observation and previous mean (day t - 1). In countries where there is continued trend in new
cases, current mean is more affected by number of new cases on preceding day.
Share and Cite:
Turasie, A. (2020) Temporal Dynamics in COVID-19 Transmission: Case of Some African Countries.
Advances in Infectious Diseases,
10, 110-122. doi:
10.4236/aid.2020.103011.