Author(s)

Zainab Shawky El-Khalifa^1*, Hoda Farouk Zahran²

¹Project Management and Sustainable Development, Arid Lands Cultivation Research Institute, City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City), New Borg Al-Arab City, Alexandria, Egypt.
²Pollution Management Department, Environment and Natural Materials Research Institute, City of Scientific Research and Technological Applications (SRTA-City), New Borg Al-Arab City, Alexandria, Egypt.

The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be 3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to 2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively, according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy development for future land using planning and agricultural production.

Cultivated Area, Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Egyptian Lands, Sustainable Development

El-Khalifa, Z. and Zahran, H. (2022) Forecasting of Cultivated Area in Egyptian Lands Using a Time Series Model for Sustainable Development. Open Journal of Applied Sciences, 12, 865-876. doi: 10.4236/ojapps.2022.126059.