Modeling Inflation in Bangladesh - Open Journal of Statistics

OJS > Vol.10 No.6, December 2020

Open Journal of Statistics

Volume 10, Issue 6 (December 2020)

ISSN Print: 2161-718X ISSN Online: 2161-7198

Google-based Impact Factor: 0.53 Citations

Modeling Inflation in Bangladesh ()

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Download as PDF (Size: 823KB) PP. 998-1009

DOI: 10.4236/ojs.2020.106056 841 Downloads 2,115 Views Citations

Author(s)

Mohammad Lutfor Rahman^*, Mynul Islam, Manik Roy

Affiliation(s)

Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT), University of Dhaka, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT

Inflation has a substantial impact on an economy because it affects the financial value of money and stability in the economy. Government and non-govern- ment policies might be hindered due to the excessive rate of inflation. This paper aims to model and forecast inflation by the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique using annual time series data on inflation from 1987 to 2017 in Bangladesh. It is found that ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model is the best optimal to forecast inflation for a period of up to eight years. Graphical tools, as well as theoretical tests such as Ljung-Box, Shapiro-Wilk, and runs tests have been used in the model diagnostics.

KEYWORDS

ARIMA, Inflation, Forecasting, Model Validity, Model Diagnostics, Bangladesh

Share and Cite:

Rahman, M. , Islam, M. and Roy, M. (2020) Modeling Inflation in Bangladesh. Open Journal of Statistics, 10, 998-1009. doi: 10.4236/ojs.2020.106056.

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