Short-Term Forecasting Management Research of Deep Horizontal Displacement of Slope Soil Based on ARIMA Model - Open Access Library Journal

OALibJ > Vol.6 No.6, June 2019

Short-Term Forecasting Management Research of Deep Horizontal Displacement of Slope Soil Based on ARIMA Model ()

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DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1105496 608 Downloads 1,183 Views

Author(s)

Kai Yan¹, Jiaye Wu^2*, Yingqian Zhang³, Lu Yang⁴, Lu Yang⁴

Affiliation(s)

¹School of Management of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong, China.
²Sichuan Sheng Tuo Testing Technology Co., LTD2, Zigong, China.
³School of Civil Engineering of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering, Zigong, China.
⁴School of Civil Engineering of Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, China.

ABSTRACT

The forecasting of deep horizontal displacement of slope soil is an important part of slope deformation monitoring, which has important guiding significance for the prevention of slope safety accidents. The historical data of deep horizontal displacement of slope soil are non-stationary time series with both random growth and time-varying fluctuation, and ARIMA model is suitable for forecasting such time series. In this paper, 648 historical data of deep horizontal displacement of soil were selected as the original sequence of empirical analysis, and forecasted the law and trend of displacement change by establishing ARIMA model. The results of empirical analysis showed that the effect of short-term static forecasting was good, which could provide useful reference for managers of slope quality safety govern slope and analyze the slope stability.

KEYWORDS

Engineering Management, ARIMA Model, Short-Term Forecasting, Deep Horizontal Displacement of Slope Soil

Share and Cite:

Yan, K. , Wu, J. , Zhang, Y. , Yang, L. and Yang, L. (2019) Short-Term Forecasting Management Research of Deep Horizontal Displacement of Slope Soil Based on ARIMA Model. Open Access Library Journal, 6, 1-18. doi: 10.4236/oalib.1105496.

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