Regressive Prediction Is the Best Way to Forecast Sports Outcomes: Evidence from Brazilian Soccer - Open Access Library Journal

OALibJ > Vol.6 No.3, March 2019

Regressive Prediction Is the Best Way to Forecast Sports Outcomes: Evidence from Brazilian Soccer ()

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DOI: 10.4236/oalib.1105264 462 Downloads 1,545 Views Citations

Author(s)

Murilo Silva, Sergio Da Silva^*

Affiliation(s)

Graduate Program in Economics, Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil.

ABSTRACT

We illustrate through a case study that regressive prediction is the best method to forecast sports outcomes. By taking predictions of promotion to first division soccer from a mathematician from one of the most famous sports websites in Brazil, we show that making Bayesian updates is misleading when we expect regression to the mean. The expert failed to realize that the more extreme the results are, the more regression is expected, because extremely good scores suggest very lucky days.

KEYWORDS

Soccer, Sports Outcomes Forecast, Regression to the Mean, Regressive Prediction, Luck

Share and Cite:

Silva, M. and Da Silva, S. (2019) Regressive Prediction Is the Best Way to Forecast Sports Outcomes: Evidence from Brazilian Soccer. Open Access Library Journal, 6, 1-7. doi: 10.4236/oalib.1105264.

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