How Inflation Affects the Management Earnings Forecasts - American Journal of Industrial and Business Management

AJIBM > Vol.9 No.1, January 2019

How Inflation Affects the Management Earnings Forecasts ()

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DOI: 10.4236/ajibm.2019.91003 867 Downloads 2,854 Views Citations

Author(s)

Jingyuan Zou

Affiliation(s)

School of Management, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.

ABSTRACT

I use 2005-2017 Shenzhen and Shanghai’s A-share listed company’s quarterly earnings forecasts data as sample to perform multiple regression analysis. I find that when inflation rate rises, not only management’s possibility of making earnings forecasts but also the precision and accuracy of management forecasts declines, ceteris paribus. Furthermore, I also find that when inflation rate rises, the state-owned nature of enterprises will aggravate the decline in the precision and accuracy of listed companies’ earnings forecasts. In the unique context of semi-mandatory disclosure rules in China, if companies voluntarily disclose more performance-related information, it usually means that the managers are more capable, more confident. Therefore, this voluntary behavior can alleviate the decline in the precision and accuracy of the earnings forecast brought by inflation. Finally, I find that the precision and accuracy of the earnings forecasts will further decline for companies with higher debt ratios, indicating that liabilities may be one of the paths of inflation affecting voluntary information disclosure.

KEYWORDS

Management Earnings Forecast, Inflation, Voluntary Information Disclosure

Share and Cite:

Zou, J. (2019) How Inflation Affects the Management Earnings Forecasts. American Journal of Industrial and Business Management, 9, 21-48. doi: 10.4236/ajibm.2019.91003.

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