Author(s)

Rafael Grecco Sanches¹, Gustavo Zen de Figueiredo Neves¹, Bruno Cesar dos Santos¹, Maurício Sanches Duarte Silva¹, Diego Narciso Buarque Pereira¹, Adriano Rogério Bruno Tech²

¹São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil.
²Department of Animal Science and Food Engineering, University of São Paulo (USP), São Paulo, Brazil.

The intense and extreme rains in southeastern Brazil are spatially and temporally dynamic, corroborating their substantial complexity regarding understanding and associations. Therefore, the present study aimed at determining threshold values for events of intense and extreme rainfall in the region of São Carlos/SP using a climatic index, as well as temporal and spatial observations. The RClimdex script, Rnn index, and the detection of outliers were employed in order to mark and establish intense and extreme rainfall thresholds for the region. Values of 10 mm and 20 mm of rain were considered typical and of greater recurrence, and their incidence over a period of 24 hours did not necessarily denote intense events. In turn, values of 35, 46, and 60 mm indicate pluviometric rates that impact on significant disasters, as verified in the IPMET/UNESP natural disasters database. It is important to emphasize that values below 60 mm of daily rainfall may also indicate disaster contexts. However, they do not exclude the necessity to verify the intensity, duration, and frequency of intense rain events, and can delineate thresholds for territorial management organizations in their planning.

Climatology, Tropical Climatology, Statistical Climatology, Intense Raining, Extreme Events

Sanches, R. , Figueiredo Neves, G. , Santos, B. , Silva, M. , Pereira, D. and Tech, A. (2018) Intense Rainfall in São Carlos/SP: Determination of Threshold Values Using Climate Indices and Their Spatio-Temporal Repercussion. American Journal of Climate Change, 7, 388-401. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2018.73023.