Author(s)

Rong Yao¹, Zhiming Kang², Yong Li³, Xiangning Cai^3*

¹Hunan Meteorological Observatory, Changsha, China.
²Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, Nanjing, China.
³National Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China.

The verification analysis is applied to medium-range forecast products of T639, ECMWF, Japan model, NCEP ensemble forecast and NMC multi-model integration in late October 2012. The results show that ECMWF model has obvious advantage over other models in terms of height field and precipitation forecast; the westerly-wind index, geostrophic U wind and 850 hPa temperature prediction products can reflect the adjustment of atmospheric circulation and the activity of cold air, which have a good reference for the medium-range temperature forecast in the eastern China; the prediction of ECMWF height field and wind field can well grasp the main weather processes within 192 h, but beyond 192 h the model forecast ability decreases significantly; different models have large deviations in the medium-range forecast of typhoon track and the intensity and range of typhoon precipitation.

Model, Verification, Medium-Range Forecast, Deviation

Yao, R. , Kang, Z. , Li, Y. and Cai, X. (2018) Application and Verification of Multi-Model Products in Medium Range Forecast. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 6, 178-193. doi: 10.4236/gep.2018.67012.