Author(s)

Samuel G. Jenkins¹, Peter G. Oduor^2*, Larry Kotchman³, Michael Kangas⁴

¹GIS Coordinator, Moorhead Public Service, Moorhead, MN, USA.
²Department of Geosciences, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND, USA.
³State Forester, North Dakota Forest Service, Bottineau, ND, USA.
⁴Nursery & State Forest Team Leader, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND, USA.

Emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is a phloem-feeding beetle native to Asia that is causing widespread mortality of ash trees in eastern North America. In this study, we quantify ash mortality risk associated with potential anthropogenic-induced introduction of Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) in North Dakota. The cohort model is calibrated with data from Ohio using weighting across factors—proximity to existing ash stands, campgrounds, roads and rails—to get a more accurate assessment of overall ash mortality risk. These factors are known to be associated with introduction of EAB to unaffected areas. Two protocols, a) “detection trees” and b) EAB traps are utilized to investigate EAB presence. Ash mortality risk maps such as the ones produced here may guide the placement of traps. Although North Dakota regions of high density ash tree stands are few, the resulting relative ash mortality risk map displays: a) very high risk areas around the Turtle Mountains and Theodore Roosevelt National Park and b) regions of high relative risk along the main riparian corridors. The applicability of risk maps such as the one developed may aid in assessing areas that may require significant monitoring.

Exposure Pathway, Relative Risk, EAB Risk Model

Jenkins, S. , Oduor, P. , Kotchman, L. and Kangas, M. (2016) A Cohort Model for Ash Mortality Risk Due to Potential Emerald Ash Borer Infestation. Open Journal of Biophysics, 6, 38-51. doi: 10.4236/ojbiphy.2016.62006.