Author(s)

Fengying Wang, Zhixin Liang

School of Information, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, China.

The mathematical expectation value method is a commonly used method in risk decision-making. This paper studies the problem of how to arrange the purchase plan in order to get the maximum expected profit; considering the applicable principles of mathematical expectation, the decision method for getting the optimal decision scheme is given. Finally, we do simulation and stability analysis on an example and obtain the reasonable result. This result shows that mathematical expectation value method is effective in solving the problem of risk decision.

Mathematical Expectation, Logistics Purchasing, Risk Decision, Stability

Wang, F. and Liang, Z. (2016) Risk Decision Analysis of Logistics Purchasing Based on Mathematical Expectation. Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation, 4, 41-45. doi: 10.4236/ojmsi.2016.42005.