Author(s)

Tao Wang

School of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.

“Time series analysis” is one of the main tools to predict the value of economic variable with the appropriate model to describe the time variation of historical data. “Scenario planning” is a kind of special research method which is used to analyze the macro environment of a subject. In the prediction of the growth trend of economic entities, the two methods can be used to a certain extent to avoid the prediction errors caused by environmental changes. The results showed that the economic growth of Shenzhen during “the 13th Five-Year Plan” would appear a slowing trend.

13th Five-Year Plan, Trend Forecasting, Economic Growth, ARIMA Model, Scenario Planning Method

Wang, T. (2016) Forecast of Economic Growth by Time Series and Scenario Planning Method—A Case Study of Shenzhen. Modern Economy, 7, 212-222. doi: 10.4236/me.2016.72023.