Author(s)

Strachimir Cht. Mavrodiev¹, Lazo Pekevski², Giorgi Kikuashvili³, Emil Botev⁴, Petar Getsov⁵, Garo Mardirossian⁵, Georgi Sotirov⁵, Dimitar Teodossiev⁵

¹Institute for Nuclear Research and Nuclear Energy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria.
²University “Sts. Cyril and Methodius”, Seismological Observatory, Skopje, Macedonia.
³Ilya State University, Tbilisi, Georgia.
⁴National Institute for Geophysics, Geography and Geodesy, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria.
⁵Space Research and Technology Institute, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Sofia, Bulgaria.

In this paper we present an approach for forecasting the imminent regional seismic activity by using geomagnetic data and Earth tide data. The time periods of seismic activity are the time periods around the Sun-Moon extreme of the diurnal average value of the tide vector module. For analyzing the geomagnetic data behaviour we use diurnal standard deviation of geomagnetic vector components F (North, East, Down) for calculating the time variance GeomagSignal. The Sun storm influence is avoided by using data for daily A-indexes (published by NOAA). The precursor signal for forecasting the incoming regional seismic activity is a simple function of the present and previous day GeomagSignal and A-indexes values. The reliability of the geomagnetic “when, regional” precursor is demonstrated by using statistical analysis of day difference between the times of “predicted” and occurred earthquakes. The base of the analysis is a natural hypothesis that the “predicted” earthquake is the one whose surface energy density in the monitoring point is bigger than the energy densities of all occurred earthquakes in the same period and region. The reliability of the approach was tested using the INTERMAGNET stations data located in Bulgaria, Panagurishte, PAG (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 29, 2014), Romania, Surlari, SUA (Jan 1, 2008-Jan 27, 2014), Italy, L’Aquila, AQU (Jan 1, 2008-May 30, 2013) in the time of EU IRSES BlackSeaHazNet (2011-2014) project. The steps of program for solving the “when, where and how” earthquake prediction problem are shortly described.

Earthquakes, Geomagnetism, Earth Sun-Moon Tide, Regional Seismic Activity, Forecasting

Mavrodiev, S. , Pekevski, L. , Kikuashvili, G. , Botev, E. , Getsov, P. , Mardirossian, G. , Sotirov, G. and Teodossiev, D. (2015) On the Imminent Regional Seismic Activity Forecasting Using INTERMAGNET and Sun-Moon Tide Code Data. Open Journal of Earthquake Research, 4, 102-113. doi: 10.4236/ojer.2015.43010.