ABSTRACT
It is widely believed,
according to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projections, that
there will be an increase in the global average sea level of 0.18 cm to 0.59 cm
through the twenty-first century. The coastal area of the Nile delta is
considered to be one of the most vulnerable areas to Sea Level Rise (SLR) in
the world. Where, the Nile Delta consists mostly of lowland areas which
accommodate a significant proportion of the Egyptian agricultural and economic
activities. SLR is expected to have a
profound impact on the agricultural areas of the Nile Delta, through either
inundation or higher levels and salinity of groundwater. Due to the prevailed
vulnerability of the Nile delta and as guidance for decision and policy making,
it is necessary to provide estimates of potential economic damage that can
result from such SLR. The paper in hand intends to estimate the economic value
of the agricultural areas, in the coastal governorates of the Nile Delta,
susceptible to inundation due to SLR according to most recent SLR scenarios and
to estimate the economic value of potential impacts of rising groundwater table,
associated with SLR, on agricultural productivity by the year 2100. The results
indicate that about 7.5%, 36.3%, and 44.0% of the total cultivated area of the
coastal governorates of the Nile Delta (with a market value of 51.7, 196.6 and
232.6 billion EGP (Egyptian Pound)) will be susceptible to inundation under the
different scenarios of SLR. Moreover, it was found that the future accumulative
crop yield loss due to increasing groundwater level was estimated, using
segmented linear regression, to be as much as 32.3
billion EGP. It is worth mentioning that these estimates do not include
indirect impacts of higher levels of
groundwater table, which may include loss of jobs and/or earnings, impacts
on food supply and food security in the area.