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has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: Modelling COVID-19 Cumulative Number of Cases in Kenya Using a Negative Binomial INAR (1) Model

  AUTHORS: Charity Wamwea, Susan Mwelu, Matabel Odin

  KEYWORDS: COVID-19 Predictive Model, New SARS-CoV-2, Integer Valued Autoregressive (INAR) Model

  JOURNAL NAME: Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation, Vol.11 No.1, January 30, 2023

  ABSTRACT: In this paper, a Negative Binomial (NB) Integer-valued Autoregressive model of order 1, INAR (1), is used to model and forecast the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 infected cases in Kenya independently for the three waves starting from 14th March 2020 to 1st February 2021. The first wave was experienced from 14th March 2020 to 15th September 2020, the second wave from around 15th September 2020 to 1st February 2021 and the third wave was experienced from 1st February 2021 to 3rd June 2021. 5, 10, and 15-day-ahead forecasts are obtained for these three waves and the performance of the NB-INAR (1) model analysed.