TITLE:
Forecasting of Cultivated Area in Egyptian Lands Using a Time Series Model for Sustainable Development
AUTHORS:
Zainab Shawky El-Khalifa, Hoda Farouk Zahran
KEYWORDS:
Cultivated Area, Forecasting, ARIMA Model, Egyptian Lands, Sustainable Development
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Journal of Applied Sciences,
Vol.12 No.6,
June
9,
2022
ABSTRACT: The cultivated area is an important component of land resources that has
a direct impact on food security. Egyptian cultivated area was estimated to be
3.86 million hectares in 2020. Recently, there has been a decline in cultivated
areas, which could be attributed to a number of factors, including climatic
changes and urban sprawl, endangering Egyptian sustainable development. So, the
aim of the current study was to forecast the values of cultivated areas in
Egypt for the next five years using the ARIMA model based on data from 1990 to
2020. The model predicted a decrease in cultivated area in coming years of
about 3.06, 3.19, 3.084, 3.082 and 3.21 million hectares, respectively,
according to the results. This forecasting will aid the country’s policy
development for future land using planning and agricultural production.