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https://doi.org/10.1016/S1059-0560(01)00101-0

has been cited by the following article:

• TITLE: Study on Import and Export-Led Economic Growth: Cases of Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe in Southern Africa

  AUTHORS: Kudzai Shamaine Tivatyi, Jian Min Shou, Kodjo N’Souvi

  KEYWORDS: Economic Growth, Export-Led Growth, Import-Led Growth, VECM, Co-Integration

  JOURNAL NAME: Open Journal of Business and Management, Vol.10 No.2, March 9, 2022

  ABSTRACT: This study aims to investigate the relationship between exports, imports and economic growth of a sample of four countries in Southern Africa for the period 1980-2019. In doing so, we check whether the Export-Led growth (ELG), Import-Led Growth (ILG), Growth-Led Export (GLE) and growth-led import (GLI) propositions hold in four Southern African economies, namely Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe. Specifically, the present study tries to 1) understand to which extent imports, exports and economic growth are correlated in the short and long run in Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Zimbabwe; 2) assess the effects of imports and exports on the economic growth in each of these countries. To this end, we used time series data, covering the period 1980 to 2019. In doing so, the co-integration tests, Vector Autoregressive “VAR” model (for South Africa) and vector error correction models “VECM” model (for Botswana, Namibia and Zimbabwe) then Granger causality tests are applied to investigate the relationship between the variables. The results show that both short run and long run relationships exist among these variables. On the one hand, our findings failed to validate the export-led growth hypothesis for South Africa in the long-run but provided support for the exports-led growth hypothesis in the short-run. The analysis finds prominent evidence of bidirectional causality between exports and growth for Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe in the long run. On the other hand, a suggestive evidence of unidirectional causality running from growth to imports was found in the case of Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. In addition, bidirectional causality between exports and imports was validated by Zimbabwe case study. Key implications are that the exports development could create employment opportunities and other spillovers. Policy-makers should improve and strengthen the competiveness of export sector. Moreover, Namibian case study confirmed the imports-led growth hypothesis in the long- run, implying that an import liberalization policy could be useful for economic growth in Namibia.