TITLE:
Logistic Approach to COVID-19 Epidemic Evolution in Brazil
AUTHORS:
Altair Souza de Assis, Vinicius Werneck de Carvalho
KEYWORDS:
New Coronavirus, COVID-19, Dynamic Models, Logistic Model, Predator-Prey Model, Dynastic model, Contamination Inflexion, Contamination Saturation-Plateau Regime, Social Isolation
JOURNAL NAME:
Open Access Library Journal,
Vol.7 No.8,
August
20,
2020
ABSTRACT:
We present in this paper the temporal evolution of the contaminated population by coronavirus in Brazil and globally. We access those information analytically and numerically using a logistic model. Using the COVID-19 data from The Brazilian Ministry of Health (MS), from The World Health Organization—WHO, and from The Niteroi Health Foundation (FMS), we plot the curves for the contaminated population ramping-up, the population inflection, and the population saturation-plateau regime. Based on the simulations, and considering this more advanced phase of the pandemic, we present some action insights, which might be useful to generate more effectiveness in the actions of society in general, and also to create a more intense public awareness on the contamination hubs and surges that may emerge due to the reduction of social isolation at this more advanced phase of the pandemic.