TITLE:
The Impact of the US Political Pressure on RMB Exchange Rate: An Event Study Analysis
AUTHORS:
Wei Guo
KEYWORDS:
Political Pressure, RMB Exchange Rate, Event Study
JOURNAL NAME:
Modern Economy,
Vol.7 No.9,
August
17,
2016
ABSTRACT: This paper takes the US as an example and uses event study approach to
analyze the political events in which the US pressured RMB exchange rate
between July 22, 2005 and March 31, 2016 as well as the outcomes of such
actions, trying to reveal the influence of such events during the appreciation
and depreciation period of RMB. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The pressure
from the United States did not play a significant role in promoting RMB
appreciation since only 53.4% out of 116 events between July 22, 2005 and March
31, 2016 were successful; 2) In various political events that aim at imposing
pressure between July 22, 2005 and March 31, 2016, the US Congress had more
significant influence on RMB exchange rate than the US administrative sectors;
3) Judging from the number of events, RMB exchange rate hasn’t undergone
obviously increased pressure from the US
since its devaluation in 2014. However, unlike the situation in the
appreciation stage, US administrative sectors were more influential than the
Congress in the devaluation stage.